The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1. Howwill the U.S. fare this year?

Some forecasters say it could be a busy year. TheNOAA is predicting 11 to 17 named storms thisseason and five to nine of them are expected to become hurricanes,with two to four becoming 'major,' or at least Category 3hurricanes.

Storm surge flooding

Nearly 6.9 million homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts areat potential risk of damage from hurricane storm surge floodingwith a total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of more than $1.5trillion, according to the 2017 Storm Surge Report from global propertyinformation and data analytics solutions provider, CoreLogic, based in Irving, California. 

The CoreLogic analysis examines risk fromhurricane-driven storm surge for homes along the Atlantic and Gulfcoastlines across 19 states and the District of Columbia, as wellas for 86 metro areas. 

Significant damage if storm makes landfall in highly populatedarea 

"Despite the fact that this year's hurricane season is predictedto have fewer storms than last year, it doesn't mitigate the riskof storm surge damage," said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazardscientist at CoreLogic. "As we've seen with past storms, even onesingle hurricane at a lower-level category can cause significantdamage if it makes landfall in a highly populated area." 

Related: Major flooding continues in wake of HurricaneMatthew [photos]

At the regional level, the Atlantic Coast has 3.9million homes at risk of storm surge with an RCV of $970billion, and the Gulf Coast has just under 3 million homesat risk with $593 billion in potential exposure to totaldestruction damage.  

At the state level, Texas and Florida — which have thelongest coastal areas — consistently have more homes atrisk than other states. Again this year, as in previous years,Florida ranks first with just under 2.8 million at-risk homesacross the five risk categories, and Texas ranks third with 536,000at-risk homes.

 (Source: CoreLogic)

*The Low risk category refers to Category 5 hurricaneswhich are not common along the northeastern Atlantic Coast. Statesin that region are designated as N/A for this category due to theextremely low probability of a Category 5 storm affecting thatarea.

Related: Hurricane season is here. Are P&C insurersstill prepared for the worst?

At the local level, the Miami area, which includes FortLauderdale and West Palm Beach, has the most homes at risk totalingalmost 785,000 with an RCV of $143 billion. By comparison, the NewYork City area has slightly fewer homes at risk at 723,000, but asignificantly higher total RCV totaling $264 billion due to thegreater home values and high construction costs in this area.

Just 15 metro areas account for 67.3% of the 6.9million total at-risk homes and 68.6% of thetotal $15.56 trillion RCV.

(Source: CoreLogic)

Methodology

The analysis in the 2017 CoreLogic Storm Surge Reportencompasses single-family residential structures less than fourstories, including mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes andcabins, among other non-traditional home types. 

Related: Hurricane Matthew breaks records, Aon reportshows

Year-over-year changes in the number of homes at risk and RCVcan be the result of several variables, including new homeconstruction, improved public records, enhanced modelingtechniques, fluctuation in labor, equipment and material costs andeven a potential rise in sea level.

Actual land values are not included in the estimates. The valuesin the report are based on 100%, or total, destruction of theresidential structure. Depending on the amount of surgewater from a given storm, there may be less than 100% damage to theresidence, which would result in a lower realizedRCV.