Despite claims to the contrary, Congress may very well be forcedto reopen the debate on the 2012 bill reauthorizing the NationalFlood Insurance Program.

Indeed, the debate, or behind-the-scene maneuverings, couldovershadow the battle over Obamacare that most people anticipatewill dominate proceedings when Congress returns to work Sept.9.

That's because the NFIP rate increases affect states withpolitical clout along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard, and,if implemented, could destabilize the housing markets in thesestates, which include Louisiana and Mississippi as well as New Yorkand New Jersey.

There are no hard numbers available, but Louisiana'scongressional delegation, as well as citizen's groups in the state,contend that rates could rise from perhaps $1,000 to $10,000 a yearon some properties when reforms are fully implemented.

It could also disrupt business because the law mandates that thefull impact of the higher rates are imposed immediately when aproperty changes hands.

Louisiana politicians are not beyond playing hardball to gettheir way.

As Congress prepared to leave for its summer recess (and thosewho cover it considering the interregnum a blessing), PC360 askedvarious lobbyists associated with the program to contact members ofCongress linked with the issue, both pro and con.

The consensus feedback was that key members of Congress had nointerest in revisiting the rate increases because they think theprogram must be put on a path of financial solvency sooner ratherthan later.

Moreover, during the House floor debate June 5 on a measure thatpassed delaying some of the rate increases, some members said thatunder the bill, some rates will go down; that increases were notacross the board.

The arcane rules of the House and Senate also make it difficultto enact controversial legislation without broad support amongst anumber of constituencies—which a rollback or delay in rateincreases does not have.

Additionally, bills imposing the rate increases are scheduled togo out starting in October and the software of companies involvedin the Write-Your-Own program has already been rewritten toimplement the changes.

The software was changed based on instructions approved by theFederal Emergency Management Agency in February.

Add to this volatile mix the fact that legislation delaying theincreases is confined to provisions where rate increases are notscheduled to go into effect until next October. One passed theHouse June 5 through an amendment to the Homeland Securityappropriations bill; another, contained in the SenateAppropriations Committee Homeland Security appropriations measure,passed the committee July 18. It is now awaiting Senate action.

The most broad-based increases, contained in Sec. 205 of thebill, would not be affected by current legislation.

David Miller, FEMA associate administrator, heard an earful fromLouisiana and Mississippi residents about the issue last month,implying that Louisiana and Mississippi will seek to put thepressure on the Obama administration to unilaterally act to delaythe increases, and therefore bypass Congress.

Sen. David Vitter, R-La., said at one meeting that he wantsPresident Obama to delay implementation of flood insurance rateincreases called for under Biggert-Waters for a year, just as thepresident delayed implementation of parts of Obamacare, the federalhealth care reform law going into effect later this year.

Vitter is never one to miss any opportunity to put Louisiana'sinterests above those of the entire country; he likes his politicsraw.

But perhaps the Gulf Coast voter is the primary reasonlegislation imposing such high rates on a relatively low-incomepart of the nation was enacted.

The reason is because the 2010 wave election, which elected tothe House a number of people clueless about the details oflegislation they would be called on to draft and pass, was allabout labeling opponents and slogans like “no new taxes,” whichsound good but confront reality.

The poster boy for this was Rep. Steven Palazzo, R-Miss. In thewave election, he defeated Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor, whose staffdid most of the research and drafting of bills aimed atreauthorizing the NFIP in 2007.

Another key, knowledgeable player forced to the sidelines wasSen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala.

Shelby was unable to spend much time on legislation so importantto his state because the Senate Republican leadership demanded hedevote most of his time as ranking minority member of the SenateBanking Committee to delaying, softening and disrupting passage ofthe Dodd-Frank financial services modernization law, and then laterits implementation.

This year, Shelby jumped at the opportunity to bag the wholething and join the join the Appropriations Committee, anotherpowerful job. He did so despite the fact he was most senior memberof the Banking panel, and the most knowledgeable about a wholerange of financial issues.