Two groups of forecasters are predicting another busy hurricaneseason this year after coming off nearly spot-on predictions for avery active 2010 season.

The team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado StateUniversity's (CSU) Tropical MeteorologyProject are projecting 17 named storms in 2011, including ninehurricanes and five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on theSaffir-Simpson scale (sustained winds of 111 mph or higher).

The team said the numbers are close to what was experiencedduring the 2010 season in the Atlantic basin.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Separately, Weather ServicesInternational (WSI), part of the Weather Channel Companies,delivered the same 2011 prediction as CSU–calling for 17 namedstorms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes of Category 3or greater.

The predicted totals are well above the normal levels of 10named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

This past season, both teams predicted a well above-averagenumbers of storms.

In June, at the start of the season, the CSU team called for 18named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, whileAndover, Mass.-based WSI called for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanesand five major hurricanes.

Both forecasts were close to the mark. There were actually 19named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

“The United States was extremely lucky in 2010 in that none ofthe 12 Atlantic basin hurricanes that formed crossed the U.S.coastline,” Mr. Klotzbach said in a statement. “On average, aboutone in four Atlantic basin hurricanes makes U.S. landfall, andtherefore, we would expect to see more landfalling hurricanes in2011.”

While noting the uncertainty in the forecast six months ahead ofthe season, CSU's Mr. Klotzbach said that current upper ocean heatanomalies in the tropical Pacific mean an El Ni?o is unlikely,leading to a more active hurricane season in 2011.

An El Ni?o produces wind and atmospheric conditions that are notconducive to the development of hurricanes.

“This forecast is based on an extended-range early Decemberstatistical prediction scheme we've developed based on 58 years ofdata,” Mr. Gray said. “At this point, we are uncertain whether LaNi?a conditions or neutral conditions are more likely for the 2011hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the far NorthAtlantic remain at record warm levels, which is an indication thatwe are in an active multidecadal period for Atlantic hurricaneactivity.”

At WSI, Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist, noted that like lastyear, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be abovenormal and wind shear is predicted to be favorable for stormformation. Mr. Crawford also said that WSI's model calls for anincreased chance of U.S. landfall in 2011, especially for thewestern Gulf states.

“The forecast numbers are quite similar to those prior to the2008 season when hurricanes Dolly, Gustav and Ike impactedLouisiana and Texas,” Mr. Crawford added.

Ike was the costliest hurricane to hit Texas, causing insuredproperty damages of $9.8 billion, according to the InsuranceServices Office. Much of the losses were shouldered by the state'sinsurer of last resort, the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association.Ike ranks as the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history, causingmore than $12.5 billion in insured losses.

Louisiana was impacted by the top three costliest hurricanes inU.S. history, including Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which costinsurers more than $41 billion.

CSU gave the following probabilities related to potentiallocations of 2011's hurricanes:

E A 73 percent chance that at least one major hurricane willmake landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011. The long-term averageprobability is 52 percent.

E For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, theprobability of a major hurricane making landfall is 49 percent. Thelong-term average is 31 percent.

E For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west toBrownsville, the probability is 48 percent. The long-term averageis 30 percent.

E The team predicts the probability of a major hurricane makinglandfall in the Caribbean as 62 percent. The average for the lastcentury is 42 percent.

The team has also updated the Landfall Probability website thatprovides probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force andmajor hurricane-force winds making landfall at specific locationsalong the U.S. East and Gulf coasts within a variety of timeperiods.