Too many important variables remain unknown to be able to comeup with a reliable estimate of insured losses from SuperstormSandy, says catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions(RMS).

“Issues continue to tickle the meter in terms of insured losses;this is an ongoing event,” Michael Kistler, director of ModelSolutions at RMS, tells PC360. “Our goal is to produce astable, usable number for the industry to use.”

RMS' Hoboken, N.J. office is experiencing firsthand effects ofSandy. Most of the small city across the Hudson River from New YorkCity remains without power and some residents arestill stranded. Train service from Hoboken to New York—countedon by thousands—remains out of service. Flood waters are justbeginning to recede. Businesses remain closed.

It's just one example, Kistler says, of the continued effects ofSandy that make it difficult to release an insured-loss estimatebecause with every minute of power loss and flooding, insuredlosses increase. Multiply these effects in various areas, such asNew York City and Southern New Jersey, that have been hit hard bythe storm and continue to deal with the ripples left behind.Millions were without power right after the storm and many remainin the dark. Thousands haven't been able to return home or to theirbusinesses.

In fact, Sandy caused the most power outages of any hurricane inhistory—effecting 15 states at the peak, RMS reports.

“Power reconnection rates have been shown during previoushurricanes to be an important driver of losses,” says Claire Souch,vice president for Model Solutions at RMS. “For example, afterHurricane Ike in 2008, more than two million residents were leftwithout power in Texas, with power outages lasting more than 10days along the coast and in the Houston suburbs, with reconnectiontimes rivaling that of Katrina and significantly longer than allother hurricanes in the past decade. Infrastructure damage over awide geographical area can take time to repair, depending on howquickly and how many repair teams can be mobilized.”

The speed at which power is restored and the pumping offloodwaters from basements and subways, for example, “remain majorunknowns,” Souch says. Extensive standing water has been shown inprevious events to lead to a phenomenon known as “vulnerabilitydeterioration,” as the water seeps further into building'sstructures, she says.

These factors have not stopped rival catastrophe modelers Eqecatand AIR Worldwide from releasing insured loss estimates fromSandy.

Eqecat says insured losses will total $10 billion to $20billion, which could make Sandy the third-costliest U.S. storm everfor insurers—behind only 2005's Katrina ($46.6 billion) and 1992'sAndrew ($22.9 billion). AIR Worldwide says Sandy will cause between$7 billion and $15 billion in insured losses.

See related story: Disruptionfrom Sandy Doubles Eqecat Insured-Loss Estimate to Up to$20B