The commercial insurance market in general might be heading south, but the bottom hasnt fallen out yet, a survey of National Underwriter readers reveals. Indeed, the market might still be a lot more rational than people think.

Indeed, despite a general decline in prices, a significant percentage of risk managers expect premiums to rise for selected coverage, and anticipate their overall insurance spending and risk retention levels to either remain unchanged or increase over the next 12 months, the survey of 132 of NUs risk management subscribers found.

Although 39 percent of corporate insurance buyers anticipate overall premium spending to drop between 1- and 10 percent, 12 percent expect the status quo, while 38 percent believe insurance outlays will actually rise between 1- and 10 percent, according to the survey, sponsored by Miller Insurance Services Ltd.–an independent, specialist, wholesale insurance and reinsurance broker based in London, operating internationally as well as at Lloyd's.

A small minority believe they face a sharp hike in overall premium spendingwith 4 percent signaling a rise of 11-to-25 percent, and 2 percent expecting more than a 25 percent increase.

While the market might be softening overall, prices are not expected to fall off a cliff anytime soon, with only 3 percent of risk managers surveyed indicating they anticipate overall insurance spending to drop between 11- and 25 percent. No buyer surveyed predicted a spending decline deeper than 25 percent.

What do you folks make of all this? The findings certainly surprised me. It indicates that while the market is softening, it is not irrational. Those with bad loss histories in certain lines could still see only modest rate cuts, if not hikes in some instances. Or is it that risk managers are just being overally cautious with their estimates?

Over the course of the week, I'll examine other key findings of the survey.

If you want more information right now, click here for the full survey story. In addition, Miller has put together its own take on the survey, with many more results and far more analysis offered. If you would like a copy, e-mail them at northamerican.research@miller-insurance.com.

Miller representatives will also be available to discuss the survey results in New Orleans at the Risk and Insurance Management Society's annual conference from April 30-May 3. Miller will be at the Lloyd's boothnumber 2320in the main exhibit area.

Special Reports /

Is The Market Still Rational?

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