Forecasters at Aon Benfield's Tropical Storm Risk are predicting an above average 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, with three major hurricanes during the course of the season.

Tropical Storm Risk's Mark Saunders and Adam Lea forecast the season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30. They see 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. A category three storm is a hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or stronger.

The predictions are unchanged from their initial prognostication in December.

The combination of slightly weaker trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic from July through September, along with slightly warmer sea surface temperatures during August and September, could lead to increased storm activity.

While admitting that the forecast is very uncertain, early indications researched by Saunders and Lea project a 57 percent probability the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above average. They say there is 29 percent chance for near-normal season and 14 chance of a below-normal season.

About two weeks ago, ImpactWeather came out with its prediction for 2013 saying there could be less storms this year than in 2012, but more major hurricanes. Last year saw only one major hurricane, but 19 named storms, ten of which became hurricanes.

On April 8 The Weather Channel's Weather Services International (WSI) says it too expects another active hurricane season, with 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five intense hurricanes expected.

“The one potential fly in the ointment is the possible emergence of an El Nino event this summer, which would create a less favorable environment for tropical development,” says WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, in a statement. “At this point, climate and statistical model solutions suggest that this outcome is not particularly likely, however.”

Additionally WeatherBell Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm that employs well-known meteorologists Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo, similarly predicts a “wild [hurricane] season,” adding that the ”major-hit drought on the U.S. coast should end.” Multiple major hits are likely, they say in a recently-released forecast.

Special Reports /

Experts: Above-Average Hurricane Season Ahead

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