The moribund economy will combine with zero interest rates to deliver a one-two knockout punch to property and casualty insurer bottom lines, with a significant turnaround in prices and premium volume unlikely before next year at the earliest, industry leaders predicted here.
Indeed, even though “the worst of the financial crisis is over,” according to Jay Gelb, a director at Barclay's Capital, “property and casualty insurers are not going to see premium growth anytime soon.”
Mr. Gelb, part of a panel of analysts speaking earlier this month at the annual P&C Insurance Joint Industry Forum, said that most insurers are “likely to see a decline in premiums due to continuing economic woes.” He cited “shrinking payrolls, failing businesses and a declining number of business startups” as among the factors dampening premium growth.
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