ORLANDO, Fla.--A leading insurance economist told an industry gathering here that the effects of the current economic downturn on underwriters will likely be subdued because of the nature of their business.

The impact on insurers "will most likely be muted," said Robert P. Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, in a speech to the National Council on Compensation Insurance at the group's annual seminar here yesterday. However, he warned that profitability is headed downward.

Mr. Hartwig, in a presentation crammed with statistics and charts, discussing "2008: A Make or Break Year for the P/C Insurance Industry?" reminded his audience that the vast majority of their business is of the renewal variety and a large share is coverage that is required of purchasers such as workers' comp, auto liability, surety and homeowners.

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