For the property-casualty industry 2005 will be remembered as the year doubt was cast upon catastrophe models, according to a new report from Ernst & Young.

“The true fallout will occur in 2006 when the industry will be forced to determine its next steps,” said Chris Shea, national director for the property-casualty division of Ernst & Young Insurance and Actuarial Advisory Services.

The group's 2006 Industry Outlook forecast that “it will be a crucial period as P-C insurers decide if they will continue to retain and manage catastrophe risk, or if they turn to the capital markets, which could create a significant chain reaction.”

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