XL Group CEO Michael S. McGavick believes that Superstorm Sandy will not be a capital event for the insurance industry, but he does think it will change the industry's perception of risk in the Northeast.

“I believe the underwriting community will have to rethink with care what they should charge for risks in a region with such a complex concentration of values exposed to such storms,” McGavick said during a Nov. 5 conference call to discuss the carrier's Q3 earnings.

“When this is all said and done, I don't think any of us are going to feel that people were as well-insured as they could have been,” he added, noting also that several elected officials have admitted the affected regions were not prepared for such a severe weather event.

Nationwide CFO Mark Thresher tells NU, “I think [companies] will step back and say, 'This is now two years in a row [that the Northeast has been hit by a storm].' They are going to think about their concentrations in this region.”

Nationwide will join the industry in reassessing its exposure, he says, before deciding whether Sandy provides an opportunity for growth in the Northeast or signals a need for rate increases or a pull-back.

XL says insurance-industry losses will be at the higher end of estimates released thus far by modeling companies. The highest prediction of losses has been from modeler Eqecat, which estimates insured losses of $10 billion and $20 billion—making Sandy the third-costliest U.S. storm ever for insurers.

Executives at the insurance and reinsurance provider say the catastrophe modeler XL works with most closely has yet to release an estimate. This is presumably Risk Management Solutions (RMS), which says too many variables still exist to product a reliable estimate.

“Issues continue to tickle the meter in terms of insured losses; this is an ongoing event,” says Michael Kistler, director of model solutions at RMS. “Our goal is to produce a stable, usable number for the industry to use.”

Catastrophe-modeling firm AIR Worldwide says Sandy will cause between $7 billion and $15 billion in insured losses.

Nationwide has received about 40,000 Sandy-related claims so far, but it is unclear how many of those will result in payment since it is expected that a lot of damage is the result of storm surge—an uncovered peril. “This makes it difficult to predict amounts of losses,” says Thresher.

Nationwide's commercial-business insurance subsidiaries are expecting Business Interruption claims to “be a big factor,” he adds. Nationwide will likely also be on the hook for claims due to commercial property and auto damage.

James Veghte, chief executive of reinsurance operations at XL, says Sandy “is a significant loss to the reinsurance market, broadly,” but XL does not write a lot in New England “due to our historic concern over winter-weather exposure.”

In terms of losses to insurance-carrier clients stemming from commercial flood or business interruption, Veghte says it's too early to predict.

XL posted third-quarter net income of $171.9 million compared to $42.4 million a year ago during the same period. McGavick says the company's earnings have been aided by underwriting initiatives, light catastrophe losses during the third quarter and favorable prior-year reserve development.

Nationwide returned to the black with a net profit of $378 million during the third quarter compared to a loss of $881 million a year ago during the same period.The insurer says it booked net operating income of $723 million after nine months compared to $375 million during the same time a year ago.

Special Reports /

XL, Nationwide Execs: Post-Sandy, Insurers Will Reconsider Northeast Exposure

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