The Wall Street sign in the Financial District of Lower Manhattan in New York City. Credit: Tada Images/Adobe Stock
Early in 2025, the narrative surrounding the U.S. economy was that of exceptionalism. The U.S. economy had continued to grow strongly in the face of headwinds, vastly outperforming developed market peers since 2019.
That narrative, however, has been replaced with one of economic uncertainty and caution as fiscal policy changes were announced and put into effect. Since the beginning of the year, economists have sharply lowered their forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2025 and sharply raised their probabilities of a recession. Uncertainty reigns supreme; however, the data has yet to show material evidence of any impacts from these policy changes.
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