Fitting to the theme of 2020, extreme weather events and seasonal activity set new worst-ever records this year, surpassing already pessimistic forecast predictions. In the East, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season brought a record-breaking 30 named storms. On the West Coast, California endured its fourth-consecutive worst-ever wildfire season, devastated by fires that now make up
five of the six largest wildfires in recorded state history. These fires contributed to an annual burned acreage total that more than doubled the record, with
4.2 million acres burned. According to Cal Fire, no other year on record has surpassed 2 million acres. Wildfire seasons have only worsened in the last four-five years at a minimum, and while the fires are not exclusive to the West, forecasters and researchers are able to determine which areas are the most at-risk, helping residents and government officials to better understand their risk and appropriately plan ahead. In a new real estate study from
ClimateCheck, researchers used climate data to do just that, identifying 13 U.S. counties with the greatest wildfire risk, ranked on a best-to-worst scale of 1 to 100. The study also includes forecasts of burned acreage totals in each county through 2050. ClimateCheck's rankings are based on assessments of individual property-level fire risk, determined by projections for the average proportion of the area surrounding a home that will burn each year. In analyzing wildfire risk on a national scale, the study found that
2020's record-breaking burned acreage total of 4 million will quickly be outpaced. ClimateCheck researchers project burns will increasingly worsen in the coming years, reaching 9.3 million acres burned each year nationally through 2050, according to the study. The company's risk models analyze data from federal agencies including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Hurricane Center, the U.S. Forest Service and FEMA.
Puzzlingly, Americans are moving to high-risk areas in droves
Looking at the most at-risk counties, the study made a surprising observation. Americans are migrating in high numbers to areas that are most at-risk for future wildfires. Each county on the list recorded population growth last year. Moreover, of the 13 counties most at-risk, six are among the top 10% fastest-growing counties in the country, ClimateCheck found. "There are many reasons people continue to run into the fire," Skylar Olsen, economic advisor to ClimateCheck, says in the study. "Whether pushed to the periphery by affordability concerns or pulled there by the value of space, a more natural world and a lower pace, many are attracted to more rural areas for affordable options outside of large- or medium-sized cities with job availability." But more growth in these areas won't stop wildfires from breaking out, Olsen notes, and building into the wildland-urban interface will put more homes and people at risk. To keep communities safe, Olsen says prudent zoning measures and strategic property and forest management are a must, especially as climate change continues to bring more serious wildfire seasons to the Western U.S. more often. Discover the top 13 U.S. counties with the greatest wildfire risk in the slideshow above, along with their risk score, burned acreage forecast through 2050, and population growth rates, ranked by ClimateCheck. Related:
