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Change is still more incremental than transformative in the insurance industry, and there are far more questions than answers about how insurer roles in the new ecosystem will play out. Change is still more incremental than transformative in the insurance industry, and there are far more questions than answers about how insurer roles in the new ecosystem will play out. (Photo: iStock)

It’s rare for forecasters to be called to account for their predictions, but my day of reckoning came when I was invited to address the recent Casualty Actuarial Society spring conference to discuss my insurance industry outlook from two years ago, “Insurers on the brink: Disrupt or be disrupted.”

The report was meant to be a wake-up call for those who believed the insurance industry’s treasure trove of data, complex products, strong capitalization, and brand recognition would insulate it from existential threats, whether posed by InsurTechs or competition from other industries. Our hypothesis was that leadership at many insurance companies harbored a false sense of security, with C-suites feeling largely immune to widespread disruption by more tech-savvy newcomers because of what our research identified as four “orthodoxies,” namely that:

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