(Bloomberg) -- A deep freeze is about to descend on NorthAmerica, Europe and Asia thanks to record high temperatures acrossthe Arctic.

How’s that? “Think of it like a seesaw,” said Matt Rogers,president of Commodity WeatherGroup LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. If winter temperatures risenorth of Alaska, that “forces an equal-opposite downward-southwardpush. The cold essentially has to go somewhere else.”

Meteorologists theorize the phenomenon works this way: Warmth inthe northern polar region helps lock in jet-stream kinks that dragcold air south and sets up conditions that weaken the polar vortex,the pressure zone that usually traps the chill in the northernmostpart of Earth. Frigid thermometer readings are, as a result,delivered to the Northern Hemisphere. So, warm Arctic, coldcontinents.

Forecasts show how drastic it could be. For example, Chicago’shigh on Monday is expected to be 43 degrees Fahrenheit (about 6Celsius) and its low 33, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. ByFriday, the high is predicted to be 18 and the low just 5.

Climate change and recently ended El Nino

Climate change and the recently ended El Nino conspired over thelast three years to heat the planet to record levels. The ice capdwindled. In September it was the smallest in scope since 2007; itswinter growth has been the slowest in chronicled history.

Sea ice keeps the air above it cold, and in November in theArctic it hit a record low, according to the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration. For several weeks, as asconsequence, a large part of the Arctic has been hotter thannormal.

“We have a buoy north of Alaska that went over to freezingaround the 10th of December, which is about a month later than itnormally happens,” said Jim Overland, a research oceanographer atthe U.S. Pacific MarineEnvironment Laboratory in Seattle, who made his first trips toArctic ice in the 60s.

Santa’s surfboard

Because there is less ice covering the Arctic Ocean, more of it hasbeen exposed to sunlight during the summer. Open water stores heatthat lingers on into the fall and early winter even after the sunhas set for the year.

Before Christmas things looked so dire meteorologists wonderedwhether “Santa was going to have to trade in his sleigh for a surfboard,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting atAtmospheric and Environmental Research, a unitof Verisk Analytics Inc.

There have already been spates of severely cold weather acrossSiberia and North America, and what scientists call climatevariability. National WeatherService meteorologists in Dallas said temperatures have beenriding a roller coaster: On Dec. 18, the high at Dallas-FortWorth International Airport was 30 degrees; on Dec. 25 a recordhigh of 80 was registered; on Wednesday another all-time high of 83was set.

Brutal cold

While the U.S. and Canada could get hit with brutal cold, Russiawill probably bear the brunt on the other side of the globe, saidBob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeatherInc. in State College, Pennsylvania. Some chilly readings couldbrush Eastern Europe and seep into eastern Asia.

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There isn’t a consensus on how the Arctic contributes to coldsurges across the hemisphere, and some scientists aren’t ready tobelieve the polar region has much influence at all, Cohen andOverland said. At the moment it’s not a widely studiedmeteorological field.

There’s no dispute that one of the mechanisms that pump cold airsouth are kinks or waves in the jet stream. Overland said the lackof Arctic-sea ice seems to lock these kinks in place for weeks at atime. In addition, the high pressure that comes with warmertemperatures spins clockwise, something Rogers said is calleda “cross-Polar flow.”

Jet stream aiming cold at North America

Right now there’s one above Alaska that’s dragging cold away fromthe Arctic and aiming it at North America.

High pressure does something else, Cohen said. It “perturbs thepolar vortex.” The pressure system and wind pattern tends to keepcold air up in the Arctic unless it weakens, stretches or gets bentout of shape. When that happens, frigid temperatures run south intoNorth America, Asia and Europe. And it may become increasinglycommon.

“The mechanics are the same,” Cohen said. “What is changing isthe loading of the dice.”

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