(Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. could fall asmuch as 3.5% if former Chairman Maurice “Hank” Greenberg wins alawsuit against the U.S. tied to the insurer’s 2008 bailout, CreditSuisse Group AG said.

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The estimate is based on Greenberg’s Starr International Co.having a 30% chance of winning a case in which he contends that therescue cheated shareholders out of at least $25 billion.

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The risk to AIG is that U.S. Court of Federal Claims JudgeThomas Wheeler rules in Greenberg’s favor, and the government seeksto recover funds from the insurer. The New York-based insurer hassaid it would fight an attempt by the U.S. to collect. CreditSuisse’s Thomas Gallagher assumed a potential cost of $8 billion,based on an estimate that the figure could be as high as $23billion and would more likely be $500 million.

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“The results of our analysis suggest headline risk of 1.5% to3.5% in the event Starr International wins,” Gallagher wrote in anote Thursday. “We continue to remain comfortable with AIG’sposition due to our view that even in the unlikely event that Starris successful, we think there is a reasonable chance that AIG couldhave the indemnification provision overturned.”

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The last time AIG fell at least 3.5% in a day was in May of lastyear, after reporting a decline in quarterly earnings.

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‘Shareholder Rights’

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Credit Suisse had put Greenberg’s chance of success at 10%heading into the trial. Closing arguments were Wednesday.

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“As the case has progressed, our view of the odds of a StarrInternational victory have increased,” the analyst wrote. “Moreinformation has come to light and emails have exposed what may beinterpreted as damage to shareholder rights.”

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AIG climbed 0.3% to $56.75 at 4:15 p.m. in New York. The companyhas advanced 1.3% this year.

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The government took over about 80% of AIG’s stock as part of therescue, which swelled to $182.3 billion. The U.S. eventually posteda profit of $22.7 billion after the insurer repaid itsobligations.

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Gallagher assumed that legal appeals could drag on over fiveyears, delaying any potential payments until 2020.

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--With assistance from Andrew Zajac in Washington.

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Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rightsreserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten,or redistributed.

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