Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that insuredlosses from Extratropical Cyclone Niklas will range between EUR 1.0billion ($1.099 billion) and EUR 1.9 billion ($2.087 billion), withthe majority of losses in Germany. Losses also occurred in Austria,Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, theNetherlands, Poland, Switzerland and the UK. AIR’s estimatesinclude wind damage to onshore residential, commercial, industrialand agricultural properties (and their contents) andautomobiles.

“On March 29, a low pressure system (Niklas) formed and thenstrengthened the next day as it moved southeastward over Europe,”said Yörn Tatge, managing director of AIR Worldwide GmbH. “On March31, Niklas developed into a strong storm centered over Denmark andthe southern Baltic Sea, bringing high winds and heavyprecipitation to Germany and parts of the U.K. By the evening ofMarch 31, Niklas’ cold front arrived in the alpine region ofGermany, causing widespread intense precipitation and strongsqualls. Recorded wind speeds for Niklas across Germany ranged from119 km/h in various coastal areas and on Wasserkuppe, 151 km/h onFeldberg in the Black Forest, up to the maximum reportedmeasurement of 192 km/h on Zugspitze, which is Germany’s highestmountain.”

Niklas continued to move eastward, causing intermittent squalls,heavy precipitation, and thunderstorms, as well as snowstorms inlocations less than 500 meters above sea level. The storms felledtrees that damaged vehicles and buildings, including their roofsand façades, and disrupted rail and air travel during the busyholiday season.

Tatge concluded, “Gust wind speeds compared to mean wind speedswere unusually high and compare to values for Kyrill in 2007.Although the average wind speeds for Niklas are lower than forKyrill, the extent of damaging winds is comparable, which makesNiklas one of the larger storms to have impacted Europe.”

Average claim size expected to be low

Due to the relatively low wind speeds (compared to hurricanes),the average claim size is expected to be low, according to AIR. Thespatial extent of damaging winds is quite large for this storm,however, and therefore claims are expected to reach a significantamount. In combination with the uncertainty of the wind footprint,this is a significant factor of uncertainty in potentiallosses.

AIR’s industry insured loss estimates reflect insured physicaldamage from wind to property (residential, commercial, industrial,agricultural, auto), both structures and their contents.

AIR’s insured loss estimates do not include:

• Business interruption and additional living expenses (ALE) forresidential claims for all modeled countries, except the U.K.
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Demand surge (AIR’s demand surge function is not triggered bythis event).