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(Bloomberg) — The San Francisco region will probably be struck by an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6.7 in coming decades, and most of the billions of dollars of damages wouldn’t be covered by insurance.

A worst-case, magnitude 7.9 earthquake could cause losses of more than $200 billion, according to report released today by catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions. The 1989 Loma Prieta event, a magnitude 6.9 quake in Bay Area, led to about $6 billion in economic damages and $960 million in insured losses.

Residential insurance penetration in the state has dropped by more than half in the 25 years since the Loma Prieta shaker, RMS said in the report. About 10 percent of California households currently have earthquake coverage, the firm said.

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