Fully autonomous self-driving cars will completely take over roadways before mid-century, predicts data analyst IHS Automotive, creating complex questions about accident liability and safety risk management to auto insurers and brokers.

In a new report, IHS says that self-driving cars (SDC's) will begin to enter the commercial market with 230,000 yearly sales in 2025 and increase to 11.8 million sold annually by 2035, putting about 54 million self-driving cars on the map worldwide. North America will lead global SDC sales (30%), followed by China and Western Europe.

At first, autonomous capabilities will add up to $10,000 to a car's sticker price but drop to $3,000 in 2035, decreasing the purchasing barrier for most customers. Eleven companies, including Audi-Volkswagen, BMW, Ford, General Motors, and Mercedes Benz have already begun to test SDC technology or plan to offer it within the next 10 to 15 years.

On one hand, self-driving cars (SDC's) will slowly but positively affect driver and pedestrian safety as "accident rates will plunge to near zero for SDCs, although other cars will crash into SDCs," says Egil Juliussen, principal analyst for HIS Automotive.

However, the report says, "There is no question that electronics of the car will become a target for malicious hacking attacks. This becomes increasingly feasible when the car is wirelessly connected to various types of networks."

Automotive risk managers will have to ensure products are reinforced with hardware-based, tamper-proof security, as well as highly sensitive software and data integrity controls that detect unauthorized access.

"The self-driving car will have large programs and complex software code that will require extensive testing to make the software reliable," says IHS. "It is extremely difficult to test the SDC software for all events that could happen. The solution is to use a software architecture that has built-in fault tolerance to limit bad events if something goes wrong."

Only three states currently have laws for safety testing for self-driving cars, posing legal questions that must be untangled and established before a framework for lawmakers and insurers is established.

For example, how will liability for accidents between SDC and manually driven cars be determined? Currently, autonomous capabilities in most vehicles are at what IHS calls "level 0," or simple driver-assist warnings for lane departures or forward collisions, or "level 1" with lane keep assistance or autonomous braking features to avoid crashes.

As the technology becomes more intuitive with time, the lines between decisions made by driver and machine will blur.

IHS says self-driving cars are already a question of "not if, but when", however, there are many miles to go before insurers and agencies have to take the wheel in offering SDC coverage to the average consumer.

Special Reports /

Self-Driving Cars to Take the Wheel by 2030?

Related Stories

Recommended For You