Personal-lines rates may be on their way down in 2014 due to aquiet hurricane season and expected strong earnings in 2013,according to MarketScout CEO Richard Kerr.

“If insurers' profits are tallied as anticipated, we expectlower rates in 2014,” Kerr says in a statement accompanyingMarketScout's latest monthly Market Barometer report.

Personal-lines rates in November were up by 3% compared to thesame month a year ago, unchanged from October's rate movement. Bothmonths saw some moderation compared to September, during whichrates were up by 4% compared to September 2012. Kerr said last month that homeowners and auto coverages ontraditional accounts were seeing premium reductions due to littlecatastrophe activity.

At that time, rates for dwellings under $1 million increased by3%. In November, according to MarketScout, rates for such dwellingswere up by 2%. Rates for higher-value homes valued over $1 million,though, were up by 5 percent in November.

Auto was up by 3% in November and personal articles were up by2%.

Commercial lines

Commercial-lines rates, meanwhile, rose by 4% in Novembercompared to the same month a year ago, unchanged from October and,according to Kerr, a sign that rate increases in general aremoderating compared to past months. “The market is still on anupward trajectory,” says Kerr, “but rate increases areslowing.”

Only two coverages—business owners policies (BOP) (up by 4%) andgeneral liability (up by 4%)—showed higher increases than October.MarketScout notes that the general-liability increase was “possiblyan adjustment from the unusually large percentage rate reduction inOctober.”

The greatest rate increase was seen in commercial auto (up by5%). Crime and surety showed the lowest increases, each up by1%.

By account size, rates for small (up to $25,000 in premium),medium ($25,001 to $250,000) and large ($250,001 to $1 million)accounts were all up by 4%, while jumbo accounts (over $1 million)were up by 3%.

By industry class, manufacturing, contracting and service wereup by 5%; habitational, transportation and energy were up by 4%;and public entity was up by 3%.