UPDATE: Gabrielle is now a tropical depression

Tropical Storm Gabrielle has a slim chance to be the latest storm to form into a hurricane in more than a decade.

Gabrielle, named yesterday, is off the coast of Puerto Rico and is forecast to drench that country as well as the Dominican Republic and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the intensity forecast for Gabrielle is highly uncertain. Some models have Gabrielle, now with winds of 40 mph, becoming a weak tropical cyclone for several days, at the most. Other models call for the storm fizzling out.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively, with seven tropical storms and no hurricanes. Last year at this time there were 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.

Accuweather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski points out the latest forming hurricane in the satellite era was 2002's Hurricane Gustav, which achieved sustained winds of at least 74 mph on Sept. 11 before strengthening to a Category 2 storm. Before the satellite era, the latest detected hurricane was on Sept. 16, 1941.

NHC and Accuweather say strong westerly winds are interfering with tropical storm development. This winds are currently protecting the East Coast. No matter Gabrielle's strength, she is predicted to spin off into the open Atlantic Ocean.

But there are three more organized tropical systems accompanying Gabrielle in the Atlantic. One, off the coast of Mexico, currently has a 30 percent chance of become a tropical cyclone, says NHC.

Accuweather says the best chance of a hurricane would likely not come until later this month. Accuweather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski says the Atlantic is “overdue” for hurricane formation and conditions are “soon to shift in favor of multiple tropical systems.”

Near the start of the hurricane season on June 1 well-known meteorologists at Colorado State University called for 18 named storms, nine hurricane and four major hurricanes. Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of CSU, now in its 30th year of issuing seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic basin, estimated a 72-percent chance at least one of these storms will strengthen to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) and make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast from Texas to Maine.

Special Reports /

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