Two updated forecasts for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonslightly reduce the number of named storms expected this year, butthere is no change in outlook for another above-average season.
|The National Hurricane Center released its August update callingfor an above average hurricane season of 13-19 named storms,including 7-9 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. In May, NHCforecast 13-20 named storms, including 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6major hurricanes. The weather service says there is a 70 percentprobability of each of the ranges of activity.
|Factors causing the increased intensity are reduced trade windsover the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic throughSeptember, which will influence cyclone activity in the Atlantic.Also, forecasters expect Atlantic sea surface temperatures to beslightly above normal.
|Aon Benfield's research unit Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) slightlyreduced its prediction to 15 named storms, seven hurricanes andthree major hurricanes.
|In June, TSR predicted 16 named storms, eight hurricanes andthree major hurricanes this season. Still, the season is poised tobe stronger than the historic norm.
|TSR says an average year produces 11 named storms, sixhurricanes and three Category 3 and above hurricanes of sustainedwinds of 111 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. TSRscientists project that there is about a 50 percent probability the2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)Index will be above-average, a 41 percent likelihood it will benear-normal, and a 10 percent chance it will be below-normal.
|To date, four named storms have popped up in the Atlanticreaching tropical storm status and doing little damage.
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