The good news for the insurance industry is that, in general, rate increases may have outpaced loss trends in the third quarter. But the benefits to companies may be offset by growing reserve pressures and the continued “slow-motion collapse” of investment income, according to a Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analysis.
In its third-quarter earnings preview for the property and casualty industry, titled “Better Than Feared,” KBW says it expects commercial-lines insurers to report rate increases in the 6 percent to 7 percent range, while personal-lines insurers will likely report increases in the 2 percent to 3 percent range. For reinsurers, KBW expects Jan. 1 renewals to be generally flat, including for catastrophe lines.
KBW says, “One potentially bullish point for the sector could be signs that the pricing improvements have outpaced loss trends, with the benefit falling to the bottom line.”
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