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American International Group is planning to buy back less stock from the Treasury this year than analysts had expected, it announced today.

However, despite the disappointing news, John Nadel, an analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach in New York, says he expects the Treasury Department’s interest in AIG stock to fall below 50 percent in the “near-term,” probably before Sept. 30, “when presumably AIG would enter its third quarter quiet period.”

That would likely trigger federal regulation of AIG. Currently, the U.S. Treasury owns 53 percent of AIG.

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