NU Online News Service, Aug. 3, 2:30 p.m.EDT

The fifth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonformed just as Colorado State University (CSU) experts issued aslightly upgraded forecast for the remainder of theseason.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to track over the CaribbeanSea and strengthen to hurricane status as it passes Jamaica byTuesday of next week, reports Risk Management Solutions (RMS),becoming a Category 1 hurricane is it reaches Mexico byWednesday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Friday thatErnesto's center was located over the St. Vincent Passage in theLesser Antille's Windward Islands. The storm has sustained maximumwinds of 45 mph extending up to 115 miles from Ernesto's center. Itis too early to tell whether Ernesto will impact the U.S.

Tropical cyclone activity for the rest of the season will beabout 90 percent of the average, states the CSU Forecast Team, aslightly increased outlook that is still suppressed due to thelikelihood of an El Niño event. In 2011, tropical cyclone activitywas 145 percent of the typical season.

The forecast team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, head ofCSU's Tropical Meteorology Project and climate-change skeptic, nowpredict 14 named storms in total, including six hurricanesand two major hurricanes sustaining winds of 111 mph or higher.

The scientists have added one storm since their June forecast.The updated prediction accounts for four named storms and onehurricane in May and June.

“We have increased our seasonal forecast from early April andearly June, due to a combination of uncertainty in El Niño as wellas slightly more favorable tropical Atlantic conditions,” Klotzbachsaid. “Still, the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall andCaribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2012season is estimated to be slightly below its long-periodaverage.”

There is a 48 percent chance that a major hurricane will yetmake landfall on U.S. shores this year, with a 28 percent chancethat the East Coast and Florida Peninsula will be hit and a 28percent chance that the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westto Brownsville will be affected.