NU Online News Service, May 25, 12:54 p.m.EDT

Two prognosticators of the 2012 Atlantic-hurricane season arestanding pat on their previously-released outlooks but the U.S. is“overdue” for a landfall.

Forecasters Weather Services International (WSI) and TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) each call for an Atlantic hurricane season closeto the long-term average of 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and 3intense hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger.

TSR, which is co-sponsored by Aon Benfield, rounds off itsforecast to predict 13 named storms, six hurricanes and threeintense hurricanes.

WSI, a member of The Weather Channel Cos., forecasts 11 namedstorms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

The Atlantic-hurricane season begins June 1 but 2012 has alreadyseen its first named storm—Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19off the coast of South Carolina.

Despite the early start to the season, forecasters say stormactivity in the Atlantic this year will be below the near-termaverage of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four majorhurricanes, due to atmospheric conditions and ocean temperaturesthat are not conducive to storm formations.

WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford says the firm’s modelcalls for a slightly below-normal probability of landfall on theEast Coast but a slightly above-normal probability of landfall inthe Gulf.

It only takes one storm to cause a major event and MarkSaunders, a professor at TSR, says “uncertainties [in forecasts]remain and we are overdue for U.S. land-falling hurricanestrikes.”

The hurricane season of 1992 was one of low activity, with sevennamed storms, but it produced Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 stormthat pummeled Florida as well as Louisiana.

Andrew caused nearly $23 billion (in 2011 dollars) in insuredlosses, according to the Insurance Information Institute. Andrewstood as the costliest U.S. hurricane ever until Katrina in 2005caused a $46.6 billion in insured losses.

Hurricane Irene in 2011 was the first to make landfall in theU.S. in the last three years and no major hurricane has hit landsince Hurricane Wilma in 2005, says TSR.

“Nature has a habit of correcting herself,” says Saunders.

TSR forecasts four tropical storm strikes on the U.S. this year,including two hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team of William Gray and PhilKlotzbach expect to issue an update to their widely-cited forecaston June 1.

In April the duo called for 10 tropical storms in the 2012Atlantic hurricane season, with four strengthening intohurricanes.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings released an analysis stating thatsufficient capacity remains available in the insurance andreinsurance markets to meet the demand for coverage prior to theapproaching U.S. hurricane season. Capacity remains high, Fitchsays, despite reported declines in surplus.