NU Online News Service, Jan. 9, 12:42 p.m. EST

The personal-lines insurance market is expected to do better than commercial lines, as price increases are anticipated to be tougher to achieve for commercial-lines carriers in 2012, says A.M. Best.

The Oldwick, N.J.-based insurance-rating service released its U.S. Property and Casualty 2012 outlook today saying, “Divergent trends are influencing rating outlooks for the various segments of the property and casualty industry.”

Best says the personal-lines segment continues its solid performance, with auto exhibiting “adequate and stable returns.”

On the other hand, personal-property lines are extremely volatile “due to the effects of continued weather-related losses.”

Because auto line makes up 60 percent of the personal-lines business, personal lines are regarded as stable overall, Best says. However, property's performance has put a “drag on overall results” meaning that “there is less room for additional deterioration in results” than in the past.

Best says it believes “the personal lines segment is adequately positioned to handle a 'normalized' weather year without a corresponding change in outlook.”

On the commercial side, Best gives an overall negative outlook rating, saying it believes that, in 2012, “negative rating actions will outnumber positive actions during the year.”

While prices are on the upswing for the first time in five years, Best says it is skeptical “that a long-term reversal in market pricing has arrived,” adding that cycles come in years not quarters.

A fragile economy will test the buying power of Main Street America businesses, which are still struggling. Large accounts will continue to resist increases. Pricing momentum is expected to be on the upturn for some lines, such as commercial property and workers' compensation.

Commercial-lines insurers will also be pressured from “continued erosion in loss-reserve adequacy.”

Best says it “does not expect rating actions to move profoundly negative” as abundant capital and investment income will generate “operating cash flows.” However, insurers are placing “greater emphasis on underwriting profitability to avoid negative rating actions.”

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