NU Online News Service, Oct. 26, 2:44 p.m. EST

Many of the factors that need to be in place for a property and casualty market turn are not—at least not to cause the type of sharp turn toward a robust hard market, says economist Robert Hartwig.

Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, says four criteria must be met for a market turn: sustained underwriting losses, material decline in surplus and capacity, a tightening reinsurance market and renewing underwriting and pricing discipline.

In past market hardening periods, all lines of insurance were doing poorly and each contributed to rapid rises. That is not the case this time, he says.

“For instance, private passenger auto is not doing poorly and that is one-third of all premiums written,” Hartwig says. “All lines are not contributing to an overall market turn. The overall magnitude of any turn won't be as strong as in the past.”

Turns are segmented throughout the industry. Additionally, property-catastrophe losses typically do not affect the casualty markets.

But a noteworthy observation is the growth in commercial, with positive rates seen at renewals instead of negative-to-flat. Workers' compensation is leading the way, as there appears to be a “return to rational pricing,” Hartwig says. Commercial property is also seeing increases.

However, industry surplus hit a record $565 billion as of March 31 (though it fell 1 percent in the second quarter) and any sustained period of underwriting loss is in any early stage. Underwriting losses remain modest and reserve releases keep reducing them, Hartwig says.

Inflation remains low and interest rates have weakened the industry's investments, mostly conservative bonds. Though interest rates have been low for a couple of years, Hartwig says insurers probably haven't priced that into rates.

Prior to the 1980s, insurance companies enjoyed multiple years of underwriting profits each decade. But since 1980, there have been just three years with underwriting profits—all in the 2000s.

Hartwig says insurers need to “move toward an old-school mentality” of generating profits through underwriting.

“The management teams that did it then aren't around now, but it was standard operating procedure. It can be done again, but it means telling regulators there is a shift—a new paradigm,” Hartwig says.

Special Reports /

All Criteria Not in Line for Rapid Market Turn

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