Hurricane Irene turned out to be more of a rain and flooding event than the wind event many had feared, but it still could crack the list of the 10 costliest U.S. storms if it hits the high end of insured-loss estimates.

The storm made landfall on Aug. 27 in North Carolina and on Aug. 28 in Little Egg Inlet, N.J. and Coney Island, N.Y. as a Category 1 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Irene then weakened to a tropical storm and made its way through the Northeast.

Catastrophe-modeler AIR Worldwide estimates losses at between $3 billion and $6 billion, while Eqecat says losses are expected to be between $1.5 billion and $2.8 billion.

Kinetic Analysis Corp. says it expects $2.6 billion in losses, far below the $14 billion in possible losses the company was warning of as Irene approached the East Coast as a stronger Category 2 storm.

Jon Hall, executive vice president at FM Global, says industry-wide losses are likely in the $2 billion to $8 billion range, and Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute, says losses could be within the $3 billion to $4 billion range.

Eqecat expects $200 million to $400 million in losses in North Carolina and South Carolina, while AIR Worldwide says the Caribbean could see between $500 million and $1.1 billion in losses.

Some experts speculated before landfall that the storm could turn what has been a soft P&C market. “This is not that event,” says Hartwig. “It was a far cry from what people had expected when Irene was approaching the coast as a Category 2.”

However, insured losses from Hurricane Irene will add to $17.3 billion in insured losses in the U.S. as of June 30—a 162 percent increase over insured losses during the first half of last year.

“Irene could put the total up between $22 billion and $23 billion,” Hartwig says. “About $16 billion was from the tornadoes earlier this year.”

As of June 30, this year had set a record with $55 billion in insured losses globally. That is more than four times the 10-year average.

Rating-agency Standard & Poor's says it does not expect Hurricane Irene to affect the industry's creditworthiness and it expects “few, if any” rating changes as a result of the storm.

At currently estimated insured losses, S&P says Irene will affect primary insurers more than reinsurers, since the primary insurers retain a greater property-catastrophe risk. In its analysis, S&P assumes Hurricane Irene will cause less than $5 billion in insured losses.

To make the list of top-10-costliest U.S. storms, Irene would need to eclipse Hurricane Jeanne, which affected many of the same states in 2004, causing about $4.15 billion (in 2009 dollars) in insured losses. The ninth-costliest hurricane is Hurricane Frances, also in 2004. Frances caused $5.21 billion in insured losses.

Hurricane Irene should not cause significant losses for commercial lines, according to Duncan Ellis, U.S. property practice leader for insurance-broker Marsh. He says Irene will probably prove to be primarily a homeowners' event.

Ellis notes, though, that the storm proves some modelers' assertions that the Northeast is susceptible to tropical cyclones, justifying underwriting increases for those types of events for commercial accounts. “This is not a big enough loss to change the market, but the definition of catastrophe just got a little broader.”

He adds that, for wind exposures, risk managers can now expect to see higher rates.

Much of the damage caused by Irene is the result of more than a foot of rain to some parts of the East Coast. Vermont in particular is “experiencing its worst flooding in a century,” says Tim Doggett, principal scientist for AIR.

Damage from flooding, including flooding generated by storm surge, is not covered by a standard homeowners' or renters' insurance policy, though there are some exceptions. Flood damage to vehicles is covered if comprehensive coverage was purchased.

In addition to wind and storm-surge damage to onshore property and contents, automobiles, demand surge, and direct and indirect business-interruption losses, AIR says its loss estimate includes additional living expenses doled out by insurers to the millions who were ordered to evacuate. Mandatory evacuation is not always covered by a homeowners' policy, but “these losses are often paid for reasons of good will,” says AIR.

As an additional impact on the industry, Irene caused the National Association of Insurance Commissioners to cancel its summer national meeting in Philadelphia, which had been scheduled for Aug. 29-Sept. 1.

Special Reports /

Hurricane Irene Strikes East Coast; More Of A Flood Event Than Wind

Related Stories

Recommended For You