NU Online News Service, Aug. 23, 11:17 a.m.EDT

Irene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, and isexpected to become a major hurricane (Category 3 or above)Wednesday as it moves north of the Dominican Republic and towardthe Bahamas.

The Irene's current five-day forecast has the storm on track toimpact the southeastern U.S., although the National HurricaneCenter (NHC) stresses that people should not focus on the exactforecast track, as days four and five during the most recentfive-year average show errors of 200 and 250 miles,respectively.

Risk Management Solutions (RMS) notes that over the past 24hours, the NHC forecast track through the Lucayan Archipelago hasshifted around 100 miles farther to the east than previouslythought, highlighting the uncertainty.

For the near-term outlook, the NHC says the core of Irene willpass to the north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti this morning,pass near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeasternBahamas tonight, and be near the central Bahamas earlyWednesday.

Storm surge is expected to be a significant problem for theBahamas, as the NHC says water levels will raise by as much as 9 to13 feet above normal tide levels over the southeastern and centralBahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The entire coast of theDominican Republic is expected to see water levels at two to fourfeet above normal tide levels.

Over the next few days, the NHC says, “The overwhelmingconsensus is that Irene will gradually turn northwestward over thenext two to three days and then move northward through a developingbreak in the subtropical ridge over the southeastern UnitedStates.”

The NHC also says Irene is forecast to become a larger thanaverage hurricane.

RMS says, “The NHC extended forecast for Irene has changedconsiderably over the last 24 hours. The current forecast has thesystem passing over 150 miles to the east of Florida on a northerlytrack, which sees the system make landfall in North Carolina thelater part of the coming weekend. The forecasted landfall locationhas shifted over 300 miles east, which is a reflection of the highuncertainty associated with the extended forecast.”

RMS adds that the NHC's “cone of uncertainty” around the trackpath at landfall covers Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and NorthCarolina.

Emily Paterson, associate cat-response manager at RMS, says in astatement, “Under the current forecast, Irene will be a majorhurricane when it passes through the Bahamas, when it makes itsclosest pass to Florida and at its forecasted landfall.”

Irene tracked over the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antillesand over Puerto Rico on Sunday and Monday. A state of emergency wasdeclared in Puerto Rico where damage reports indicate widespreadtree and power-line damage and flooded streets, RMS says.