Insurers and reinsurers will not likely see a direct impact from Standard & Poor's recent downgrade of U.S. long-term sovereign debt, experts say, but the underlying economic conditions that led to the downgrade could cause some of the same issues experienced in 2008 to re-emerge.

Insurance Information Institute President Robert P. Hartwig says the downgrade has no impact on the solvency of insurers or their claims-paying ability. He notes that U.S. Treasury accounts for 6 percent of invested assets, making it a minor position in the overall financial picture for insurers.

Hartwig also says the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) issued a statement saying there would be no impact on insurers' investments and that risk-based capital and asset-valuation reserves would be unaffected. He explains that this means insurers do not have to worry about putting up more cash for reserves.

The Aug. 5 action by S&P to downgrade the U.S. sovereign rating by one notch from “AAA” to “AA+” is “trivial,” Hartwig says, compared to the market disruptions three years ago, and he adds that Treasury bonds still remain the “safest security in the world” for investors.

In its statement, the NAIC says it sees no current impact on insurers' capital, but it would “consider changes to our regulatory treatment if it becomes necessary in the future.”

Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter issued a report saying it also sees no impact on the P&C industry. Guy Carpenter illustrates the point by noting that in an S&P European model where the U.S. rating dropped to “AA-,” capital charges moved upward only by about 0.3 points.

Guy Carpenter did say that if the downgrade further weakens the U.S. dollar, foreign companies could look to target U.S. carriers for acquisition.

Financial analysts also were not pushing the panic button in their evaluations of the P&C industry.

Sandler O'Neil Research says in a note that the “impact on the insurance industry is reasonably modest.” The biggest impact would be on carriers' portfolios that hold U.S. government debt.

UBS's Brian Meredith says insurers view the downgrade as a “business risk.” The extent of action by carriers would be to reduce “their exposure to government and government-agency securities within their fixed-income portfolios.”

Independent insurance-analysis firm ALIRT says the direct impact of the downgrade “is really a sideshow, with no meaningful direct manifestations.”

But, the firm adds, the indirect impact could mean weaker investment returns, fewer insurable exposures and possibly a prolonging of the soft commercial market.

ALIRT says the downgrade “is largely the reflection and not the cause of ongoing financial turmoil in both global economies and capital markets. It is precisely this uncertainty and the possibility of equity- and credit-market retrenchment/double-dip recession that has the greatest impact on U.S. insurers.”

Weaker economic conditions could cause investment losses in bond, direct mortgage and equity holdings, leading to weaker profitability for insurers, ALIRT contends. The firm notes that lower equity markets could result in direct investment losses for insurers and cause potential buyers to defer purchases.

Additionally, further economic struggles could also increase unemployment, which could impact group medical health sales for P&C and health insurers, ALIRT adds.

ALIRT also says a weaker economy could have “an especially adverse impact on P&C insurers if it defers a likely needed turn in commercial-lines pricing, as supply for product would continue to exceed demand and insurance buyers [would] balk at price increases.”

“In short,” ALIRT concludes, “more than three years after the onset of the financial crisis, the macroeconomic conditions that directly impact insurers both on a revenue-generation and earnings basis appear to be once again in great flux. The downgrade of the leading economic power's sovereign debt only exacerbates current global financial anxiety.”

In a recent S&P conference call discussing its decision, analysts David Beers and John Chambers emphasize that the reason for the downgrade decision was the political inability of U.S. leaders to take the initiative and find a solution to the debt problem.

The United States rating could return to “AAA” status when there is broader fiscal consensus and a “robust” fiscal package agreed upon in Washington, the analysts say.

They made a point of noting that no country with an “A” rating has ever defaulted on their investment-grade bonds.

Meanwhile, Moody's recently reaffirmed its “AAA” rating of the U.S. credit strength rating, saying that further measures to control the U.S. debt are necessary.

Moody's says downgrade could be triggered before 2013 if the federal government fails to agree on a plan that keeps the federal debt to GDP ratio from peaking “not far above the projected 2012 levels of near 75 percent by the middle of the decade and then declining over the longer term.”

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Experts Weigh Direct, Indirect Impact Of S&P&rsquo;s U.S. Downgrade

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Experts Weigh Direct, Indirect Impact Of S&P’s U.S. Downgrade