NU Online News Service, March 16, 3:13 p.m. EST

A question similar to one that followed the New Zealand earthquake earlier this year now follows the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake: Will this event be the one to harden rates?

Not by itself, but the Tohoku quake, when combined with the New Zealand earthquake, Australian floods, Cyclone Yasi and U.S. winter storms, could at the very least stabilize reinsurance pricing, according to Moody’s.

Fitch Ratings said that when also factoring in future catastrophe losses—the hurricane season has yet to begin—the March 11 earthquake in Japan could “ultimately be a catalyst for a positive change in the pricing cycle.”

“This could be a market-changing event for global reinsurers, particularly if the major international reinsurers and Lloyd’s are impacted strongly,” said a note from A.M. Best Co.

Joshua Shankar, research analyst with Deutsche Bank, said in a report that about 25-30 percent of insured losses from the earthquake have the potential to impact Bermuda and U.S. reinsurers, with a loss of $25 billion or less.

Modeler EQECAT said insured losses from the event will be between $12 billion and $25 billion. Shortly after the earthquake, AIR Worldwide released an insured loss estimate of $15 billion to $35 billion, which does not include losses from the tsunami.

Deutsche Bank and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) released reports predicting regional pockets of hardening but not an overall hard market as a result of the Japan quake.

Dean Evans, an analyst with KBW, said pricing could improve in New Zealand, Australia and Japan as well as for California earthquake coverage and Florida wind renewals.

Mr. Shankar said Deutsche Bank “sees little likelihood” that the Tohoku earthquake will harden U.S. domestic insurance prices.

“It is our view that a loss event of historical proportions in Japan is unlikely to have an impact on the price of insurance in Peoria, Ill.,” wrote Mr. Shankar.

KBW’s report paralleled the opinion.

Much of the loss is to be absorbed by the Japanese government, and the losses that trickle to the reinsurance market will not be significant enough to impair companies or change market perceptions, said Mr. Shankar, who likened the catastrophe events so far in 2011 to losses incurred by the 2004 hurricane season, which did not harden rates.

David Flandro, global head of business intelligence for Guy Carpenter, said it is known that natural-catastrophe budgets were impaired prior to the Japan quake, but there are other sources of earnings income.

“We don’t know exactly what affect this will have on earnings or capital,” he said.

Reinsurance premiums for the Japanese domestic market are renewed on April 1. A.M. Best said it appears renewals will be delayed.

Mr. Flandro said the comment was “too preemptive.”

He said, “This will be a big market event and we need to make sure capacity is provided in a fair, efficient, timely way. Our job is to make clients whole, and hopefully that helps the Japanese people in some way.”

Mr. Shankar said some contracts have already been renewed at rates established before the earthquake.

Special Reports /

The Rate Debate: Japan Quake Alone Not Enough To Harden Market

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