NU Online News Service, Feb. 8, 12:00 p.m. EST

Independent reinsurance brokerage firm Holborn said the first quarter has been an eventful one for reinsurers, who will post losses on several events including a recent cyclone and flooding in Australia and developing losses from the New Zealand and Chilean earthquakes in 2010.

Losses in the first quarter will eclipse $4 billion, or 10 points to the industry's loss and combined ratios, Holborn said.

The brokerage estimates losses and expenses of between $1.5 billion and $3 billion due to Cyclone Yasi, which struck Queensland, Australia early this month.

Catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide said insured losses from Yasi will be between $354 million and $1.5 billion. The prediction includes only insured physical damage to onshore property and business interruption.

Yasi was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane and hit close to where Cyclone Larry made landfall in 2005. Larry caused more than $500 million in insured losses and modeler EQECAT said Yasi's affected area has two to five times the building values, Holborn reported.

In addition, crop damage is also insured by the private sector in Australia, Holborn said.

Holborn's estimate for Yasi includes additional flood, crop, automobile and life losses.

Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings said Yasi and flooding that occurred in Australia earlier this year are expected to affect first quarter 2011 results but the reinsurer is still assessing its exposure. Flooding in Queensland during December 2010 is expected to cause losses of $10 million, net of reinstatement premiums and retrocession, Flagstone said.

“The amount of loss that is reinsured will depend on which carriers are exposed and the number of occurrences,” Holborn commented on the late 2010 flooding.

Reinsurer PartnerRe Ltd. said Australia flooding in December is expected to cost the company between $25 million and $35 million, and reported that its non-life segment combined ratio during the fourth quarter was 94.6 compared to 80.3 the year before. Twelve points were added due to revisions in losses from the New Zealand quake and Australian flooding.

Holborn said losses from New Zealand and Chile continue to develop. Reinsurers' disclosures for both events continue to fall below estimates from catastrophe modeling firms, Holborn pointed out.

Flagstone Re said it expects aggregate covers to be triggered and losses of $25 million for the fourth quarter due to the events in New Zealand and Australia in 2010.

For the winter storms in the United States, Holborn said losses are likely to exceed last year's loss estimate of $5 billion. The storms will spur losses to some regional catastrophe programs and cause some losses on collapses.

Special Reports /

1Q Reinsurance Losses To Top $4B, Holborn Says

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