NU Online News Service, Feb. 03, 12:51 p.m. EST

Sometimes even William R. Berkley gets it wrong.

The chairman and chief executive officer of W.R. Berkley Corp. said during a conference call to discuss fourth-quarter earnings that his prediction for a market turn was off.

For the first few months of the quarter his forecast looked good, Mr. Berkley said, until “December popped that balloon quickly when the world got more competitive and prices, in fact, came down as everyone rushed off to meet their budgets and shoot for volume.”

Therefore, a quarter that looked as though it might have seen measurable price increases wound up with about a 0.3 percent decrease in pricing.

In the meantime, W.R. Berkley posted 2010 fourth-quarter net income of about $127 million, compared to $134 million during the same time in 2009. Profit for the year was about $449.3 million, up from $309.1 million for 2009.

Mr. Berkley said the “fundamental things that change business behavior are fear and greed.”

“Pricing models change when fear overcomes greed,” he said, adding that at some point in time a company’s management will say, “It’s not worth it anymore.”

He added, “You’ve got to get to that point where you’re afraid your results will be so bad that that overcomes your desire to just grow and write more business because the risk is too much.”

W. Robert Berkley Jr., president and chief operating officer, said the company continues to see “an inconsistent yet growing number of carriers adjusting their underwriting behavior,” and the inflection point is coming when “general industry-wide anxiety at inadequate rates converts into actions.”

Mr. Berkley said the company loses some business because others write it at an inadequate price, “but it’s now unusual as opposed to everyday occurrences.”

The corporation recorded an 11 percent increase in net premiums written during the fourth quarter, mostly from international growth, said the COO. The Australian floods are not expected to impact Berkley, he said.

Special Reports /

W.R. Berkley: For Market To Turn, Fear Must Overcome Greed

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