ebruary brings us the venerable and rather silly holiday known as Groundhog Day, when the eponymous furry rodent predicts a lingering winter if he sees his shadow (and what a winter it's been, what with immobilizing snowstorms on the East Coast in December and last month's freak freezing rain in the sunny South).

Just as we turn to the groundhog's prediction for a return to good times, we find ourselves in the dead of winter at the start of a new year, hopefully looking for signs of spring in the economy and the insurance industry.

In this case, the groundhog is pretty confused. Many indicators in the general economy show signs of improvement: a little relief in unemployment figures, the stock market ticking up on better news from the European markets and improvements in manufacturing, retail and consumer confidence.

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