NU Online News Service, Dec. 8, 12:16 p.m. EST

Forecasters are predicting another busy hurricane season next year after coming off a very busy 2010 season that Colorado State University forecasters accurately predicted.

The team of Philip Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University's (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project are projecting 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (sustained winds of 111 mph or higher) for next year.

The team said the numbers are close to what was experienced during the 2010 season in the Atlantic basin. The hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

This past season the team predicted a well above-average hurricane season. In June, at the start of the season, the team called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. There were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

"The U.S. was extremely lucky in 2010 in that none of the 12 Atlantic basin hurricanes that formed crossed the U.S. coastline," Mr. Klotzbach said in a statement. "On average, about one in four Atlantic basin hurricanes makes U.S. landfall, and therefore, we would expect to see more land falling hurricanes in 2011."

While noting the uncertainty in the forecast six months ahead of the season, Mr. Klotzbach said that current upper ocean heat anomalies in the tropical Pacific mean an El Nino is unlikely, leading to a more active hurricane season in 2011.

An El Nino produces wind and atmospheric conditions that are not conducive to the development of hurricanes.

"This forecast is based on an extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme we've developed based on 58 years of data," Mr. Gray said. "At this point, we are uncertain whether La Nina conditions or neutral conditions are more likely for the 2011 hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic remain at record warm levels, which is an indication that we are in an active multidecadal period for Atlantic hurricane activity."

For the 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season, the CSU hurricane forecast team predicts:

o A 73 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

o For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 49 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent).

o For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 48 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).

o The team predicts the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean as 62 percent (average for the last century is 42 percent).

The team has also updated the Landfall Probability website that provides probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds making landfall at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts within a variety of time periods.

The team said it will issue seasonal updates of its 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on April 6, June 1 and Aug. 3.

The lack of hurricanes making U.S. landfall this year was seen as a benefit for insurers, but catastrophes in other parts of the world in 2010 were in line with average natural losses for the year.

Special Reports /

2011 Expected To Be Another Busy Hurricane Season

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