NU Online News Service, Nov. 5, 3:17 p.m. EDT

The fallout from Republican Election Day victories could result in a lot of "noise" about health care reform, but few substantive changes to the existing legislation, industry officials and analysts said.

Beth Mantz-Steindecker of Washington Analysis said one of the first things she expects House Republicans to do in the new Congress is to propose and pass measures to repeal health care reform.

She said the House could also pass measures eliminating key components of the legislation, such as the individual mandate and taxes and industry fees. Other likely successful House efforts will be defunding the agencies and other aspects of the reforms, Ms. Mantz-Steindecker said.

"But, we expect any bill that would materially gut the Democrats' landmark legislation is unlikely to muster sufficient Senate support or get past a veto by President Obama," she said.

At the same time, Ed Fensholt, senior vice president and director of compliance services for the Lockton Benefit Group, Kansas City, Mo., contended that there is a price to pay for the Republicans should they engage in such theater.

"The Republicans must be prudent," Mr. Fensholt said. "Voters, particularly those in the all-important political center, are likely to have little tolerance for symbolic gestures while the nation's economy festers," he said.

"For the same reason, if Republicans allow themselves to become bogged down over fringe issues, they will have misread the lessons of the election results," Mr. Fensholt said.

The biggest change in health care is significant congressional oversight, Ms. Mantz-Steindecker said, which could lead to delay efforts by Republicans.

"Several House committees are itching to haul up to Capitol Hill, on a revolving basis, [Department of Health and Human Services Secretary] Kathleen Sebelius and Joel Ario [who heads the group implementing the exchange provision that goes into effect in 2014] and [Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator] Don Berwick," she said.

"Besides eating up time and resources that could help slow down implementation, it gives the GOP multiple opportunities to re-air opposition to health care reform and puts the administration on the defensive," she said.

As for "Plan B," the crystal ball gets cloudier, said Joel Wood, senior vice president for government relations at the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers.

He said the law details 115 appropriations that are integral to implementation of the legislation.

"This, of course, raises the specter of major gridlock, and there is no clear path forward," he said.

"If we had to guess, we believe that Republicans will be able to muscle through a very limited repeal of onerous provisions of the law, but not be able to go much further than waging a sustained public relations battle centering on the presidential election," he said.

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Repealing Health Care: More Smoke Than Fire

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