NU Online News Service, Oct. 14, 12:21 p.m. EDT

Hurricane Paula is expected to weaken to a tropical storm late Thursday while it continues to travel over Cuba--possibly its cigar producing area.

It also remains a possibility that the storm could find its way to southern Florida or into the Gulf of Mexico, one modeler said.

Now a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, Hurricane Paula is expected to become a tropical storm later today before becoming a tropical depression tomorrow due to wind sheer, land interaction and other environmental factors, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Paula, the ninth hurricane and 16^th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is currently located close to the western tip of Cuba. Due to the small size of the storm, modeler Risk Management Solutions said only a small portion of the coast would be subject to Paula's strongest winds.

RMS said models predict several scenarios, making the extended forecast foggy. Some models show Paula tracking north of Cuba to make landfall over southern Florida and others track Paula into the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm might avoid Cuba's most populated areas if it makes landfall to the west, but it may affect the country's economy, particularly Cuba's cigar producing area, said Margaret Joseph, catastrophe response analysts for RMS.

As of now a hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio and a tropical storm force warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, according to RMS.

Special Reports /

Hurricane Paula Should Stay Over Cuba, But Florida, Gulf Could See Action

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