NU Online News Service, Aug. 18, 3:46 p.m. EDT

ORLANDO, Fla.--The ongoing recession has hit workers' compensation carriers hard, causing nearly a quarter of the market's premiums to evaporate and cutting profitability by as much as half in the past two years, experts in the field reported here.

"Profitability in workers' compensation is heading downhill rather rapidly," according to Robert P. Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute. "We are earning about 40-to-50 percent less than we were pre-crisis," he added, referring to the financial meltdown caused by the collapse of the housing market.

Mr. Hartwig and two fellow panelists reported on the state of the market here this week as part of the National Trends program put on annually by National Underwriter as part of the Workers' Compensation Educational Conference.

Mr. Hartwig noted that the demand for workers' comp coverage has dropped dramatically as unemployment has soared over the past two years. "Nationwide, we lost about 8.4 million jobs from December 2007 through December 2009," he noted. "The recession caused the largest impact on workers' compensation exposure in 60 years."

Indeed, Jeff Eddinger, rate-making practice leader and senior actuary for NCCI Holdings Inc., reported that "in the last two years, workers' compensation has lost 23 percent of its premium."

Mr. Hartwig noted that high-exposure industries such as construction and manufacturing have been hardest hit in this recession, draining a lot of workers' comp premium from the market.

In addition, small businesses--which typically buy full coverage for comp as opposed to larger firms, which often carry high-deductible programs--are going bankrupt in record numbers, while start-ups are stymied by the credit crunch.

However, according to Mr. Eddinger, the dramatic drop in comp premiums is "not all due to the recession," as continuing declines in accident frequency and a competitive market have also driven prices down. "NCCI and other rating bureaus have lowered rates and loss costs by 7 percent," he noted. "Also, carriers dropped pricing by 4 percent. That accounts for about half of the drop."

Mr. Eddinger has a ready answer for employers who still complain about high costs. "The cost of workers' compensation as it relates to total employer cost has come down in the decade 1999-to-2009," he said. "It now stands at 1.6 percent, down from 1.4 percent."

Addressing state issues, Gary Hinson, vice president of ACE COMPlete workers' comp claims, warned that the patchwork of state laws regarding the medical use of marijuana will have a significant impact in the workers' comp arena.

"The statutes are fairly loose regarding when it can be prescribed, and there is no guidance on whether this should be paid for in a workers' compensation claim or not," he said. "Some states allow you to grow your own. So, if you grow your own, do I pay you for that? What is the fee schedule in that instance? If you have someone who works with hazardous machinery, and the guy is medically using marijuana, what do you do? Is that person entitled to keep his job? These are real issues and we will be dealing with them in the next couple of years."

The panelists did offer some positive news across various fronts.

Mr. Eddinger reported that in residual market pools serviced by NCCI premium volume has fallen from its peak in the early 1990s--a healthy sign. In 2009, it accounted for some $500 million in premium, about 5 percent of the total market. Mr. Eddinger also said that he is "seeing a little bit of a slowdown in both indemnity and medical costs per claim. We used to see double-digit growth, and we are seeing some mitigation in the last couple of years."

All noted the decrease in claims frequency.

On the jobs front, Mr. Hartwig predicted that Texas, the Plains States, and agricultural states "will be doing quite well in the near future. However, states tied to construction will continue to have a hard time."

He also sees huge potential for jobs and payroll within the health care industry. "Many insurers have steered away from these risks, such as nursing homes, in the past, because of their relatively high exposures," noted Mr. Hartwig. "However, we are going to see major transformational shifts in this country. About four million jobs will be created in the health care business through 2018. Many of these jobs are relatively well paying, with a lot of workers' comp exposure to be had. If you are not taking a stake in this business, you are going to be missing the big boat."

On a final positive note, Mr. Hartwig predicted that while economic recovery will be slow, "the reality is I do not think we are going to have a double-dip recession.

"Although it will take several more years for the country to get back to an unemployment rate of 5 percent, we will see small growth this year and next year," he said. "We have seen private sector job growth every month in 2010, and that is good news for the workers' compensation market. As bad as things feel today, they are much much better than they were 18 months ago."

Joan Collier is Editor of Florida Underwriter, part of Summit Business Media's P&C Insurance Group, which includes National Underwriter.

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