Predicting the end of the soft market in insurance is about aseasy as forecasting the weather. If you change the channel on yourTV you'll certainly find contradictory viewpoints from rivalmeteorologists.

For the September issue of Tech Decisions, Iinterviewed several people for an article on underwriting and askeda couple of them what their opinion was on the current softmarket.

Paul Zamora, vice president of claims for the ICW Group inCalifornia believes the hard market is just around the corner.

"I originally thought it would be the fourth quarter of thisyear, but I'm now predicting it will be the second quarter of nextyear," he says. "We're seeing carriers increase prices inCalifornia. We're seeing carriers produce results that are notprofitable. There is less reserve for them to dip into to maketheir financials look better. Carriers that are going to thrivewill have to operate in a highly efficient manner."

Of course, Zamora is an underwriter and by and large this grouphas to be looking forward to a return to the hard market as it putsmore precision into what they do.

Zamora's comments certainly contrast with the views of Celent'ssenior analyst Donald Light.

"I believe the market remains soft, with a few exceptions," hesays. "Much of that is driven by a lack of a robust economicrecovery."

Light doesn't see the change happening as quickly as Zamora seesit, with the exceptions of coverages for the energy sector andoffshore oil rigs.

With the economy slowly rebounding from the recession, insurershave been more adventurous in their underwriting. Here's hoping thedismal recovery brightens and Zamora hits his prediction.