NU Online News Service, June 28, 2:35 p.m. EDT

Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is intensifying in the southern Gulf of Mexico but is not expected to hit the location of the British Petroleum oil spill, according to officials.

Based on current forecasts, the storm should track well south of the oil slick, said Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, a Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm. But there is significant uncertainty in both the track and future intensity of the storm, he added.

"The outer wind field of the storm could push oil from the spill farther toward the Gulf Coast," Mr. Doggett said.

News reports last week had noted the possibility that Alex could track over the spill site, requiring the shutdown of cleanup operations there.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it expects Alex to develop into a hurricane on Tuesday, making landfall on Thursday in northern Mexico, close to the Texas border.

Mr. Doggett said it could also touch down along the Texas coast near Brownsville.

"Alex's ultimate landfall location will be determined by the storm's interaction with high pressure systems over the Gulf of Mexico and the central U.S.," Mr. Doggett said.

The tropical storm developed Friday off the north coast of Honduras, in the west Caribbean Sea, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, said catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

Alex moved across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico on June 26 and 27, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to the region. Due to its interaction with the land, it weakened in intensity to a tropical depression.

But over the past 12 hours Alex moved into the southern Gulf of Mexico and has intensified back to tropical storm strength due to warm sea surface temperatures in the region.

Alex currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is traveling around 7 mph in a north-northwest direction. This motion is expected to continue today but will turn toward the northwest on Tuesday, NHC said.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the coast of Texas south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande. The government of Mexico has also issued a hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico from the mouth of the Rio Grande to La Cruz.

Alex is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3-to-6 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, southern Mexico and the northern portions of Guatemala through Tuesday. NHC said these rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

In 2008, Hurricane Dolly struck at the border between Mexico and Texas, a landfall location just north of the anticipated track for Alex. Dolly resulted in $525 million in insured losses, according to ISO's Property Claims Services.

Special Reports /

Gulf Tropical Storm Intensifying But Expected To Miss Oil Spill

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