NU Online News Service, May 7, 12:01 p.m. EDT

ORLANDO, Fla.--Despite continuing doubts and uncertainties regarding the economy, a noted insurance economist offered some good news to workers' compensation insurers, saying the recovery is self-sustaining and the property and casualty industry will see growth in 2011.

Speaking at the National Council on Compensation Insurance 2010 Annual Issues Symposium held here, Insurance Information Institute President Robert Hartwig said he does not expect to see a "double dip" recession, and does not see a secondary spike in unemployment or swoon in payrolls.

"This era of mass explosive destruction, particularly in the commercial lines space, including workers' compensation...I believe that has ended as well," Mr. Hartwig said.

The results of a recovery, he said, may not be immediately apparent. He noted that exposure growth will lag behind but could become evident in the second half of this year and begin to accelerate in 2011.

"We'll eventually see it," he said.

Along with a recovery, the industry can expect to see an increase in demand for commercial insurance products, including workers' comp, Mr. Hartwig observed.

"The p&c insurance industry will see growth in 2011 for the first time since 2006," he said. "For five years we have not seen growth in this business."

The growth will not be dramatic, he cautioned. He said the industry can expect 2.5-to-3 percent growth over the next two years, but noted that such growth will be appreciated given the recent past.

The industry, he continued, has recovered over 100 percent of capital lost during the financial crisis. While that is a good message to take to Washington, reflecting the resiliency of the industry, Mr. Hartwig also said it is a reason why the market remains soft.

He said there is record capacity chasing "greatly depressed exposures."

Mr. Hartwig said the future after the recession will not be like the past.

While NCCI executives talked yesterday about the bulk of workers' comp premiums coming from manufacturing and construction, Mr. Hartwig said the fastest growing industries coming out of the recession will be in the health, science and technology sectors, rather than manufacturing and construction.

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Economic Recovery Real; Insurers Will Benefit, I.I.I President Says

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