Insured losses from the Chile earthquake will range from $3 billion to $8 billion, according to an early estimate from catastrophe risk modeling firm Eqecat.

Insured losses from the massive Feb. 27 quake amount to 25 percent of the total estimated economic loss. This prediction, explained Eqecat, represents 15-to-40 percent of the estimated insured limits for quake coverage.

The estimates are based on property and casualty insurance premiums of about $4 billion annually in Chile. The company noted that earthquake coverage comprises a minority of p&c premiums, but that coverage limits will be a large multiple of the annual premiums.

Eqecat said its initial estimate of insured loss was not yet based on ground data or a geographic distribution of insured values at risk, thus the range is correspondingly wide.

In addition, a large degree of uncertainty in the insured loss estimate stems from the extent of infrastructure damage. The speed of restoration of transportation and utility networks can significantly impact business interruption losses, the firm noted.

Imelda Powers, a Towers Watson senior consultant on reinsurance brokerage, said that based on figures from Swiss Re, less than 50 percent of the p&c coverage in Chile is provided by domestic insurers, with international companies accounting for more than 59 percent of the premium.

She said about 10 percent of insurable residential buildings have quake coverage, as do 60 percent of commercial properties.

Ms. Powers said she suspects that insured loss estimates will increase when a resulting rise in the cost of building supplies is factored in, which she said is the normal effect of a super catastrophe.

Eqecat noted that Chile's widespread adoption and enforcement of modern, seismic-resistant building practices has mitigated the potential for devastation.

AIR Worldwide in Boston–which gave an early estimation that insured losses would exceed $2 billion–noted that Chile has a long history of building code evolution, beginning in 1928. A year after its 1985 magnitude 8 quake, the government of Chile asked the Chilean Institute of National Standards to revise the 1972 building codes, and revised codes were released in 1993.

Of the collapsed buildings, Eqecat said it expected they would be a minority of the overall building stock. Costs of reconstruction often exceed the value of economic damage since new construction typically uses newer (current) building standards, the firm noted.

Risk Management Solutions, a Newark, Calif.-based catastrophe modeling firm, said earthquake coverage is widespread in Chile, with 90 percent of property insurance policies carrying it. “Given the recent history of earthquakes, insurance penetration in Chile is relatively high at around 3.5 percent of GDP. To put this in context, coverage there is higher than in Mexico, although still lower than the U.S.,” said Claire Souch, a vice president at RMS.

Extended disruption of commerce and construction material shortages will inflate the multibillion-dollar cost of rebuilding Chile's quake-damaged areas, noted RMS.

“The ultimate costs of the earthquake will become exacerbated by extended periods of business disruption and by cost increases due to shortages of materials and workers to advance the reconstruction,” said Robert Muir-Wood, RMS chief research officer. “With more than a million properties known to be damaged, there will be shortages of building materials and labor, raising the costs of repairs. People will also expect their reconstructed buildings to be built to better standards than the ruins they replace.”

The Institute for Business and Home Safety warned there are lessons to be learned from both the Haiti and Chile disasters, in that parts of the United States are vulnerable to earthquakes as well.

“While there are many dissimilarities between the two catastrophes that account for the variation in the levels of destruction, one of the primary reasons Chile fared better than Haiti is because the country has imposed tough building codes in recent decades,” Julie Rochman, IBHS president and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Unfortunately, there remain many earthquake-prone areas in the United States that also lack effective building codes, or where building code enforcement is inconsistent, she noted.

“Earthquakes are not like blizzards or hurricanes,” Ms. Rochman added. “We cannot predict when one is going to hit. Accordingly, we must prepare now, and the first step is the adoption of stronger seismic building codes. The time to take action is before, not after, a catastrophe like a major earthquake hits.”

Special Reports /

Chile Quake Insured Losses Could Hit $8 Billion, Early Estimates Predict

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