NU Online News Service, March 5, 12:20 p.m. EST

A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck south central Taiwan Thursday morning at 8:20 a.m. local time, according to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide. Losses are not expected to exceed $1 billion.

The California-based modeling firm Eqecat estimated the total economic damages from the earthquake in Taiwan, including losses from secondary fires and landslides at less than $1 billion. The company said it expects insured losses to be a small fraction of this.

The epicenter was located about 25 miles northwest of the city of Taitung, with an estimated population of 200,000, on Taiwan's East Coast; and 40 miles southeast of the city of Tainan, which has a population of about 800,000 on the island's West Coast.

According to New York-based reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter, initial reports suggest key infrastructure and semiconductor firms located near the epicenter location were not significantly affected by the earthquake. An official of the Tainan Science Industrial Park, which houses plants of many tech firms, said no big production losses were likely and electricity supply remains normal.

In the population centers of Tainan and to a lesser extent Taitung, AIR expects damage to be largely limited to nonstructural elements such as glazing, cladding, suspended ceilings and interior walls, as well as to contents. Well-engineered tall and high-rise buildings should be unaffected by the quake.

In Taiwan, the majority of low- to mid-rise buildings are constructed with reinforced concrete frames and brick infill walls. Current Taiwan Building Codes (TBC) require ductile detailing of reinforced concrete frames, similar to the requirements of the American Concrete Institute and the Uniform Building Code (UBC) of 1982. Tall buildings are dominated by construction using reinforced concrete frames and shear walls, AIR said.

According to the Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance Program (TREIP), 26 percent of residential property is insured against earthquakes, up from just 6 percent in 2002, when the insurance pool was formed.

"At the level of reported shaking, AIR expects damage to unreinforced masonry construction near the earthquake's epicenter," Bingming Shen-Tu, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide said in a statement. "The degree of damage will depend, in part, on whether focal depth is closer to the current estimate issued by the USGS or that issued by the CWB. Mr. Shen-Tu continued that in general, the shallower the earthquake, the more damaging it will be.

Focal depth has been estimated at 14.3 miles by the U.S. Geological Survey, but at just 3 miles by Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB). It is still in the early aftermath of this event and these estimates may well be revised as additional information comes in from seismic networks worldwide.

Special Reports /

Taiwan Quake Should See Small Losses, Modelers Say

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