NU Online News Service

WASHINGTON--President Obama launched the end game onhealth care reform legislation today, saying he wants a vote on abill in Congress by the end of the month.

To pass a measure, the Democratic majority in Congress will usethe reconciliation process permitting a simple majority vote,according to a health care analytical group.

Ira Loss and Beth Mantz Steindecker of Washington Analysis in aninvestment note said also that they were raising the odds that ahealth care bill will be enacted this year "to slightly above 50percent."

The analysts said that "over the past few weeks, it appears thatthe market has moved up its odds on passage of health care reform,but only to a low probability."

"We think the prospects are higher... based on our reading ofthe political tea leaves, some vote counting and our gut instinct,"they commented.

Their note acknowledged that the Democrats currently lack thevotes in both the Senate and the House, but concluded, "We thinkthey will be able to secure the necessary votes needed to enacthealth care reform."

They said the problem appears not to be in the Senate but in theHouse where there are subgroups of Democrats uneasy with passinghealth care reform.

"Yet, Democrats have so much invested in this that they will bedamned if they do, damned if they don't, come November," wrote Lossand Steindecker.

The way forward is likely to play out over the nextfour-to-eight weeks, they said in the note to investors.

"While the Democratic leadership is purportedly hoping to wrapup health care reform by March 18, when the president departs forIndonesia and Australia, the more likely target date is by March29, when the week-long Easter recess begins," the analystsestimated.

The Democrats' strategy, the memo said, involves the Housepassing the Senate's health care bill from last December and theHouse and Senate using the reconciliation process to pass a sidecarbill "fixing that underlying legislation, as a way to appease HouseDemocrats."

Reconciliation, which is only available until April 18, is aSenate procedural mechanism allowing bills dealing with itemsincluded in a budget reconciliation document to pass the Senatewith only 51 votes. Otherwise, 60 votes are needed to limit debateon a measure under "regular order." That allows opponents torequire 60 votes before debate can be limited.

In remarks at the White House today, President Obama said that"at stake right now is not just our ability to solve this problem,but our ability to solve any problem."

He added, "The American people want to know if it's stillpossible for Washington to look out for their interests and theirfuture. They are waiting for us to act. They are waiting for us tolead."

And, "as long as I hold this office, I intend to provide thatleadership," the president added. "I don't know how this playspolitically, but I know it's right. And so I ask Congress to finishits work, and I look forward to signing this reform into law."

The president acted a day after sending a letter to theRepublican congressional leadership saying he would incorporateseveral suggestions voiced at a health care summit last week intohis final bill.

Specifically, he said that the Republican proposals he wouldaccept include beefing up programs to combat fraud, waste and abusein government-sponsored health care plans; expanding Health SavingsAccounts; providing more funds for demonstration projects in thestates for alternative means of dealing with medical liabilitylawsuits; and looking at ways to increase reimbursement for servingMedicaid patients.

He said he would work to combat fraud, waste and abuse in healthcare delivery by agreeing to hire medical professionals to conductrandom undercover investigations of health care providers receivingreimbursements from Medicare, Medicaid and other Federalprograms.

He said he also agreed to increase funding to states by $50million for demonstrating alternatives to resolving medicalmalpractice disputes, including health courts.

Officials of the National Association of Insurance and FinancialAdvisors said in reaction to the president's proposals that it is"pleased" that the latest plan would include initiatives to expandtax-favored Health Savings Accounts and provide state grants foralternatives to resolving medical malpractice disputes in hisrevised proposal.

"But, we still have grave concerns regarding the president'sproposal to tax unearned income, including annuities," said TomCurrey, NAIFA president.

He also said that problems remain with the base bill, "such asthe lack of a strong incentive to keep healthy individuals in thesystem."

He noted that "there is little in current proposals to dissuadeindividuals from waiting until they are sick or injured to obtaininsurance."