NU Online News Service, March 3, 3:56 p.m. EST

WASHINGTON–President Obama launched the end game on health care reform legislation today, saying he wants a vote on a bill in Congress by the end of the month.

To pass a measure, the Democratic majority in Congress will use the reconciliation process permitting a simple majority vote, according to a health care analytical group.

Ira Loss and Beth Mantz Steindecker of Washington Analysis in an investment note said also that they were raising the odds that a health care bill will be enacted this year "to slightly above 50 percent."

The analysts said that "over the past few weeks, it appears that the market has moved up its odds on passage of health care reform, but only to a low probability."

"We think the prospects are higher… based on our reading of the political tea leaves, some vote counting and our gut instinct," they commented.

Their note acknowledged that the Democrats currently lack the votes in both the Senate and the House, but concluded, "We think they will be able to secure the necessary votes needed to enact health care reform."

They said the problem appears not to be in the Senate but in the House where there are subgroups of Democrats uneasy with passing health care reform.

"Yet, Democrats have so much invested in this that they will be damned if they do, damned if they don't, come November," wrote Mr. Loss and Ms. Steindecker.

The way forward is likely to play out over the next four-to-eight weeks, they said in the note to investors.

"While the Democratic leadership is purportedly hoping to wrap up health care reform by March 18, when the president departs for Indonesia and Australia, the more likely target date is by March 29, when the week-long Easter recess begins," the analysts estimated.

The Democrats' strategy, the memo said, involves the House passing the Senate's health care bill from last December and the House and Senate using the reconciliation process to pass a sidecar bill "fixing that underlying legislation, as a way to appease House Democrats."

Reconciliation, which is only available until April 18, is a Senate procedural mechanism allowing bills dealing with items included in a budget reconciliation document to pass the Senate with only 51 votes. Otherwise, 60 votes are needed to limit debate on a measure under "regular order." That allows opponents to require 60 votes before debate can be limited.

In remarks at the White House today, President Obama said that "at stake right now is not just our ability to solve this problem, but our ability to solve any problem."

He added, "The American people want to know if it's still possible for Washington to look out for their interests and their future. They are waiting for us to act. They are waiting for us to lead."

And, "as long as I hold this office, I intend to provide that leadership," the president added. "I don't know how this plays politically, but I know it's right. And so I ask Congress to finish its work, and I look forward to signing this reform into law."

The president acted a day after sending a letter to the Republican congressional leadership saying he would incorporate several suggestions voiced at a health care summit last week into his final bill.

Specifically, he said that the Republican proposals he would accept include beefing up programs to combat fraud, waste and abuse in government-sponsored health care plans; expanding Health Savings Accounts; providing more funds for demonstration projects in the states for alternative means of dealing with medical liability lawsuits; and looking at ways to increase reimbursement for serving Medicaid patients.

He said he would work to combat fraud, waste and abuse in health care delivery by agreeing to hire medical professionals to conduct random undercover investigations of health care providers receiving reimbursements from Medicare, Medicaid and other Federal programs.

He said he also agreed to increase funding to states by $50 million for demonstrating alternatives to resolving medical malpractice disputes, including health courts.

Officials of the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors said in reaction to the president's proposals that it is "pleased" that the latest plan would include initiatives to expand tax-favored Health Savings Accounts and provide state grants for alternatives to resolving medical malpractice disputes in his revised proposal.

"But, we still have grave concerns regarding the president's proposal to tax unearned income, including annuities," said Tom Currey, NAIFA president.

He also said that problems remain with the base bill, "such as the lack of a strong incentive to keep healthy individuals in the system."

He noted that "there is little in current proposals to dissuade individuals from waiting until they are sick or injured to obtain insurance."

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Obama Wants To Push Health Care Bill Through By March 31

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