NU Online News Service, Dec. 9, 4:00 p.m. EST

The Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team has issued an initial prediction calling for an above-average storm season next year with up to eight hurricanes.

According to the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo., a team led by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, there is an anticipated range of 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

It put the chances of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline at better than 60 percent.

The team's announcement said that since the report is based on Atlantic basin conditions that can change substantially by the June 1 hurricane season, it is for the first time calling for a range of activity.

Its announcement said it will list specific numerical forecasts for the 2010 hurricane season which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30 as of their next forecast, which will be issued on April 7.

"The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. Our early December statistical forecast methodology shows evidence over 58 past years that significant improvement over climatology can be attained," said Mr. Klotzbach, the forecast's lead author.

Mr. Gray said, "We foresee a somewhat above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season. We anticipate the current El Nino event to dissipate by the 2010 hurricane season and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2010--conditions that contribute to an above-average season."

The forecast announcement said it is based on an extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that uses 58 years of hindcast data.

For the 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season, the CSU hurricane forecast team predicts:

o A 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

o For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall is 40 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent).

o For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 40 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).

o The team predicts the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean as 53 percent (average for the last century is 42 percent).

With the forecast the Colorado State team updated the Landfall Probability Web site that provides probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and major hurricane-force winds making landfall at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods.

U.S. landfall probabilities are available for 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. Probabilities are also available for Central America and the Caribbean. With the help of Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts, the Web site is available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.

The entire forecast report is online at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.eduits 2010. The team provides Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on April 7, June 2 and Aug. 4.

Special Reports /

Colorado State Forecasters See Tough Hurricane Season Ahead

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