NU Online News Service, Oct. 20, 12:54 p.m.EDT

Hurricane Rick should do little damage in hitting the expensiveinsured commercial properties in Mexico's Baja Peninsula, AIRWorldwide catastrophe modeling firm said.

The firm noted yesterday that the storm was weakening to aCategory 3 hurricane with winds up to 130 mph from its Category 5status Saturday morning when its winds were 180 miles per hour, AIRsaid.

At its peak intensity, the firm said Hurricane Rick became thesecond-strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record and thestrongest ever to form in the eastern basin in October.

The National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Rick will continueto weaken as it interacts with cooler waters and unfavorableweather conditions.

It is forecast to arrive near the southern tip of the BajaCalifornia peninsula early tomorrow, possibly with hurricane-forcewinds and brief periods of heavy rainfall. An anticipated increasein its forward speed should minimize flooding, said AIR.

Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide, said "the tipof the Baja peninsula where Rick is expected to make landfall is atourist destination and contains a significant number of insuredcommercial properties. AIR estimates that commercial exposures inthe municipality of Los Cabos are about $2.06 billion."

Commercial properties in the region, said Mr. Doggett, tend tobe constructed of confined masonry or reinforced concrete. Bothconstruction types should fare well at the wind speeds currentlyforecast at landfall.

"While it is possible that many buildings are likely to sufferdamage to roofs and sidings as well as to non-structural elementssuch as balconies and signage, structural damage is expected to beminimal," he said.

Rick's hurricane-force winds extend outward from its center upto 40 miles while its tropical storm-force winds extend as far as150 miles, AIR said. The government of Mexico issued a hurricanewatch for southern Baja California, from Santa Fe southward on thewest coast of the Baja peninsula.

Hurricane Rick originated Thursday as a tropical depressionseveral hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, said Mr.Doggett.

The forecaster said Rick had become a hurricane within 24hours--and intensified to maximum strength hurricane Category 5status in only 36 hours. "However, increasing wind shear, warmingdeep convection around its eye and movement into dry air restrainedRick's continued outflow to the west and weakened itsignificantly," Mr. Doggett remarked.

He added that Rick's forward speed is forecast to increase andits track to turn more to the north and northeast. He said thestorm will encounter both drier air and enhanced wind shear,leading to a further gradual decrease in storm intensity. However,despite weakening, Rick is still forecast to be at hurricanestrength as it passes the southern Baja area.

Rick is the seventh hurricane of this year's eastern northPacific season and only the 11th Category 5 eastern Pacifichurricane since 1970, when reliable records began.

AIR noted that on the opposite side of the Pacific, anotherlate-season tropical cyclone, Category 4 Typhoon Lupit, hascontinued its movement toward the main Philippines island of Luzon,already devastated by Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana.

Peter Sousounis, Principal Scientist at AIR Worldwide, said ifLupit makes landfall on Luzon on Thursday as currently forecast(perhaps as a strong Category 1 typhoon), "it is expected to bringyet another 12 inches and more of rain to the already-soaked landof the region."