NU Online News Service, June 5, 2:23 p.m. EDT

BROOKLYN N.Y.--Prior calculations of the U.S. property-casualty insurance industry's ultimate exposure to asbestos claims have probably underestimated the amount by $10-to-$15 billion, an actuary predicted.

Noting, however, that the deficiency will be recognized over a long period, Raji Bhagavatula, a principal for Milliman who is well known for her work in analyzing asbestos reserves, said this development is not going to be a shocking event for the industry.

She spoke at a session this week of the Standard & Poor's 2009 Insurance Conference in Brooklyn. Ms. Bhagavatula reviewed historical changes in asbestos reserve levels and spoke about her current thinking on asbestos reserves levels.

In contrast to the development of asbestos losses going forward, she said insurers were shocked back in 2002 and 2003 when they were forced to hike asbestos reserves suddenly in recognition of two significant trends. The trends, Ms. Bhagavatula said, were a massive increase in the number of asbestos filings in 2000 and 2001 and broadening of the number of defendants.

The number of asbestos filings in 2000 and 2001 doubled over the level of 1999, she said. Cumulative filings at that point reached almost the ultimate levels that had been previously projected, she said.

As a result, "there was a reckoning in the industry, Ms. Bhagavatula explained, noting that roughly half of a $60 billion boost in reserves cited by S&P analysts for accident years 1998-2001 was attributable to asbestos.

"Insurers were blessed with a hard market at that time, so there was a significant recognition of the problem" in terms of boosting reserves, she said.

Back then, she said, experts' estimates of the ultimate economic cost of asbestos lawsuits were hiked to a range of $200-to-$300 billion, with her own falling at $275 billion.

Noting that $70 billion of the figure was her estimate of the portion of those costs that would be paid out by the U.S. insurance industry, she said roughly $65 billion has been recognized by insurers to date, and that based on what is known today, she'd probably revise her estimate to $80- or $85 billion.

Explaining some of the things that have changed since she developed her prior estimates, Ms. Bhagavatula said while the number of nonmalignant filings have now come down, the ultimate level of mesothelioma filings was probably underprojected. In addition, the situation for nonproduct liability lawsuits still remains unsettled, she said.

The ultimate payout of the remainder of the $80-to-$85 billion in insurance losses will "creep over time," she said. "It's not going to be the shock loss that we saw in 2002."

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Insurers&#039; Asbestos Exposure Is Billions Higher, But Bearable, Actuary Says

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