NU Online News Service, April 30, 1:52 p.m. EDT

The property-casualty insurance sector most likely to see anyswine flu claims would be the workers' compensation line, aninsurance expert who has studied influenza pandemics saidtoday.

But Steven Weisbart, senior vice president and chief economistat the Insurance Information Institute, also said that bringingsuch comp claims would probably be difficult.

In general, he said the U.S. property-casualty, life insurance,and reinsurance industries have the capacity to weather any swineflu claims surge, even in the remote likelihood of an outbreakcomparable to the deadly 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic.

That event killed 675,000 people in the United States. Annuallythe U.S. death rate from flue strains is currently 36,000.

"Given the coordinated, effective efforts of public healthgroups we saw earlier this decade, amid the SARS and avian fluscares, it is likely that the spread of swine flu can be containedor at least more limited than it would have been in prior years,"according to Mr. Weisbart.

Concerning comp claims arising from swine flu, he said there wasa possibility of claims "by people who get sick and have evidenceit was arising from the workplace--if a cluster all got sick fromone employer."

He said such claims could involve lost-time payments from peoplewho had to stay home. But without solid evidence tying theirillness to the workplace, he said it would be difficult for anindividual employee to bring a claim.

Outside of workers' comp, in the property-casualty sector, "Idon't see any other line obviously affected," said Mr.Weisbart.

Concerning possible factors that could make the swine fluoutbreak worse than the 1918 pandemic, Mr. Weisbart mentioned thatthere are "more people today with compromised immune systemsbecause of AIDS or because of treatment for cancer with radiationand chemotherapy that weakens their systems."

He also mentioned the difficulty in quickly producing aswine-flu-specific vaccine. It could take up to six months beforethere are ample supplies to inoculate large numbers of people, henoted.

Some drugs--such as Relenza and Tamiflu and other antiviralmedications--can make symptoms less serious, and might help, "butit's hard to know. It's something people will try," said Mr.Weisbart.

In a 2006 paper on the Avian flu, he estimated that an outbreakalong the lines of the 1918 pandemic could cause an estimated $133billion in additional death claims for life insurers.

But detection and confirmation of the presence of a virus ismore rapid today, he noted. The World Health Organization has 133centers in 84 countries to collect and analyze viruses, he wrote,as well as better, more specialized health care facilities andequipment--emergency rooms, intensive care units, mechanicalventilators, etc.--that can mitigate secondary effects .

Influenza pandemics in 1957 and 1968, were much milder than the1918 outbreak, the paper noted.