The economic downturn may push the uninsured driver rate up over 16 percent by 2010, according to a new Insurance Research Council study.

If the rate should climb above that point it would be the highest uninsured driver rate since IRC began tracking such data 20 years ago, said David Corum, an IRC spokesman. The previous high was exactly 16 percent in 1993, he related.

The study, “Uninsured Motorists, 2008 Edition,” noted that the estimated percentage of uninsured motorists nationally decreased from 14.9 percent in 2003 to 13.8 percent in 2007. But it added that the economic downturn “is expected to trigger a sharp rise in the uninsured motorist rate.”

The study showed that there is a “strong correlation” between the percentage of uninsured motorists and the unemployment rate.

A 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate, said IRC, corresponds with three-quarters of a percentage point increase in the uninsured motorist rate. “Based on current unemployment rate projections,” the IRC said, “the percentage of uninsured motorists is expected to rise from 13.8 in 2007 to 16.1 in 2010.”

Responding to the report, Bob Passmore, director of personal lines for the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI), said in a statement, “There is no simple answer to reducing the number of uninsured motorists. However, as economic times tighten everyone's budget, it is even more important for policymakers to avoid costly uninsured motorist proposals that yield marginal results.”

Mr. Passmore also made recommendations for state legislators to reduce the cost of insurance for consumers, including passing a “No Pay/No Play” law, which takes away a motorist's right to sue for non-economic damages if he/she does not obtain automotive liability coverage.

He also suggested states institute mandatory fines for driving without insurance and enforce uninsured driving laws more efficiently.

The PCI statement said, “In lieu of uninsured motorist verification database systems that can too frequently misidentify insured drivers, PCI supports instead enforcement measures that target drivers who are most likely to drive uninsured.”

It added that red flags for verification checks could include drivers whose licenses or registrations have been previously suspended or revoked; have been convicted of insurance violations; have multiple traffic law convictions; and have repeated accident involvement.

An insurance enforcement initiative in Dallas requires the police department to impound the car of an uninsured driver who is pulled over or involved in an accident.

But when previously asked about this effort to reduce the number of uninsured motorists, Mr. Passmore voiced concerns about implementing such a system, particularly whether drivers would be able to get their cars back in a clear, efficient manner.

According to the IRC report, the five states in 2007 with the highest uninsured driver estimates were New Mexico (29 percent), Mississippi (28 percent), Alabama (26 percent), Oklahoma (24 percent) and Florida (23 percent). The five states with the lowest uninsured driver estimates were Massachusetts (1 percent), Maine (4 percent), North Dakota (5 percent), New York (5 percent) and Vermont (6 percent).

The IRC is a division of the American Institute for CPCU and the Insurance Institute of America.

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